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Deterministic techniques assume that no uncertainty exists

Customer Question

Question 1

Deterministic techniques assume that no uncertainty exists in model parameters. Answer True False .5 points Question 2

A continuous random variable may assume only integer values within a given interval. Answer True False .5 points Question 3

An inspector correctly identifies defective products 90% of the time. For the next 10 products, the probability that he makes fewer than 2 incorrect inspections is 0.736. Answer True False .5 points

Question 4 A decision tree is a diagram consisting of circles decision nodes, square probability nodes, and branches. Answer True False .5 points

Question 5 Starting conditions have no impact on the validity of a simulation model. Answer True False .5 points

Question 6 Simulation results will always equal analytical results if 30 trials of the simulation have been conducted. Answer True False .5 points

Question 7 The Delphi develops a consensus forecast about what will occur in the future. Answer True False .5 points

Question 8 Qualitative methods are the least common type of forecasting method for the long-term strategic planning process. Answer True False .5 points

Question 9 __________ is a measure of dispersion of random variable values about the expected value. Answer Standard deviation Range The z-score (the standard score) All of the above .5 points

Question 10 Assume that it takes a college student an average of 5 minutes to find a parking spot in the main parking lot. Assume also that this time is normally distributed with a standard deviation of 2 minutes. What time is exceeded by approximately 75% of the college students when trying to find a parking spot in the main parking lot? Answer 3.5 minutes 5.75 minutes 6.36 minutes 9.2 minutes .5 points

Question 11 The __________ is the maximum amount a decision maker would pay for additional information. Answer expected opportunity loss expected value expected value of perfect information none of the above .5 points

Question 12 Developing the cumulative probability distribution helps to determine Answer simulation numbers data sets random number ranges all of the above .5 points

Question 13 Two hundred simulation runs were completed using the probability of a machine breakdown from the table below. The average number of breakdowns from the simulation trials was 1.93 with a standard deviation of 0.20. No. of breakdowns per week Probability Cumulative probability

0 .10 .10

1 .25 .35

2 .36 .71

3 .22 .93

4 .07 1.00

What is the probability of 2 or fewer breakdowns? Answer .10 .25 .35 .71 .5 points

Question 14 Consider the following frequency of demand:

If the simulation begins with 0.8102, the simulated value for demand would be Answer 1 2 3 4 .5 points

Question 15 Pseudorandom numbers exhibit __________ in order to be considered truly random. Answer a limited number of possible outcomes a uniform distribution a detectable pattern a detectable run of certain numbers

.5 points

Question 16 Coefficient of determination is the percentage of the variation in the __________ variable that results from the __________ variable. Answer dependent, dependent independent, dependent dependent, independent independent, independent .5 points

Question 17 __________ methods are the most common type of forecasting method for the long-term strategic planning process. Answer Regression Qualitative Time series all of the above .5 points

Question 18 __________ is a measure of the strength of the relationship between independent and dependent variables. Answer Correlation Linear regression Coefficient of determination Regression .5 points

Question 19 Consider the following demand and forecast. Period Demand Forecast

1 7 10

2 12 15

3 18 20

4 22

If MAD = 2, what is the forecast for period 4? Answer 19 20 21 none of the above .5 points

Question 20 In exponential smoothing, the closer alpha is to __________, the greater the reaction to the most recent demand. Answer -1 0 1 -1 or 1 .5 points

Question 21 Which of the following possible values of alpha would cause exponential smoothing to respond the most slowly to sudden changes in forecast errors? Answer .01 .10 .50 .90 .5 points

Question 22 Consider the following graph of sales.

Which of the following characteristics is exhibited by the data? Answer Trend only Trend plus seasonal Seasonal only None of the above .5 points

Question 23 __________ is absolute error as a percentage of demand. Answer Cumulative error MAD MAPD Average error .5 points

Question 24 __________ is a category of statistical techniques that uses historical data to predict future behavior. Answer Qualitative methods Regression Time series Quantitative methods .5 points

Question 25 The drying rate in an industrial process is dependent on many factors and varies according to the following distribution.

Compute the mean drying time. Use two places after the decimal. Answer .5 points

Question 26 An online sweepstakes has the following payoffs and probabilities. Each person is limited to one entry. The probability of winning at least $1,000.00 is ________. Answer .5 points

Question 27 A life insurance company wants to estimate their annual payouts. Assume that the probability distribution of the lifetimes of the participants is approximately a normal distribution with a mean of 68 years and a standard deviation of 4 years. What proportion of the plan recipients would receive payments beyond age 75? Round your answer to four places after the decimal. Answer .5 points

Question 28 A fair die is rolled 8 times. What is the probability that an even number (2,4, 6) will occur between 2 and 4 times? Round your answer to four places after the decimal. Answer .5 points

Question 29 An investor is considering 4 different opportunities, A, B, C, or D. The payoff for each opportunity will depend on the economic conditions, represented in the payoff table below. Economic Condition Poor Average Good Excellent Investment (S1) (S2) (S3) (S4) A 50 75 20 30 B 80 15 40 50 C -100 300 -50 10 D 25 25 25 25

If the probabilities of each economic condition are 0.5, 0.1, 0.35, and 0.05 respectively, what is the highest expected payoff? Answer .5 points

Question 30 The local operations manager for the IRS must decide whether to hire 1, 2, or 3 temporary workers. He estimates that net revenues will vary with how well taxpayers comply with the new tax code. If he thinks the chances of low, medium, and high compliance are 20%, 30%, and 50% respectively, what is the expected value of perfect information? Round your answer to the nearest dollar. Answer .5 points

Question 31

A normal distribution has a mean of 500 and a standard deviation of 50. A manager wants to simulate one value from this distribution, and has drawn the number 1.4 randomly. What is the simulated value? Answer .5 points

Question 32 Daily highs in Sacramento for the past week (from least to most recent) were: 95, 102, 101, 96, 95, 90 and 92. Develop a forecast for today using a 2 day moving average. Answer .5 points

Question 33 Daily highs in Sacramento for the past week (from least to most recent) were: 95, 102, 101, 96, 95, 90 and 92. Develop a forecast for today using a weighted moving average, with weights of .6, .3 and .1, where the highest weights are applied to the most recent data. Answer .5 points

Question 34 The following sales data are available for 2003-2008 : Year Sales Forecast

2003 7 9

2004 12 10

2005 14 15

2006 20 22

2007 16 18

2008 25 21

Calculate the absolute value of the average error. Use three significant digits after the decimal. Answer .5 points

Question 35 The following data summarizes the historical demand for a product. Month Actual Demand

March 20

April 25

May 40

June 35

July 30

August 45

Use exponential smoothing with α = .2 and the smoothed forecast for July is 32. Determine the smoothed forecast for August. Answer .5 points

Question 36 Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame:

Compute a 3-period moving average for period 4. Use two places after the decimal. Answer .5 points

Question 37 The following sales data are available for 2003-2008. Determine a 4-year weighted moving average forecast for 2009, where weights are W1 = 0.1, W2 = 0.2, W3 = 0.2 and W4 = 0.5. Answer .5 points

Question 38 This is the data from the last 4 weeks: Use the equation of the regression line to forecast the increased sales for when the number of ads is 10. Answer .5 points

Question 39 Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame: Compute a 3-period moving average for period 6. Use two places after the decimal. Answer .5 points

Question 40 Robert wants to know if there is a relation between money spent on gambling and winnings. What is the coefficient of determination? Use two significant places after the decimal.