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# Deterministic techniques assume that no uncertainty exists

### Customer Question

Question 1

Deterministic techniques assume that no uncertainty exists in model parameters.
False .5 points
Question 2

A continuous random variable may assume only integer values within a given interval.
False .5 points
Question 3

An inspector correctly identifies defective products 90% of the time. For the next 10 products, the probability that he makes fewer than 2 incorrect inspections is 0.736.
False .5 points

Question 4
A decision tree is a diagram consisting of circles decision nodes, square probability nodes, and branches.
False .5 points

Question 5
Starting conditions have no impact on the validity of a simulation model.
False .5 points

Question 6
Simulation results will always equal analytical results if 30 trials of the simulation have been conducted.
False .5 points

Question 7
The Delphi develops a consensus forecast about what will occur in the future.
False .5 points

Question 8
Qualitative methods are the least common type of forecasting method for the long-term strategic planning process.
False .5 points

Question 9
__________ is a measure of dispersion of random variable values about the expected value.
Range
The z-score (the standard score)
All of the above
.5 points

Question 10
Assume that it takes a college student an average of 5 minutes to find a parking spot in the main parking lot. Assume also that this time is normally distributed with a standard deviation of 2 minutes. What time is exceeded by approximately 75% of the college students when trying to find a parking spot in the main parking lot?
5.75 minutes
6.36 minutes
9.2 minutes
.5 points

Question 11
The __________ is the maximum amount a decision maker would pay for additional information.
Answer expected opportunity loss
expected value
expected value of perfect information
none of the above
.5 points

Question 12
Developing the cumulative probability distribution helps to determine
data sets
random number ranges
all of the above
.5 points

Question 13
Two hundred simulation runs were completed using the probability of a machine breakdown from the table below. The average number of breakdowns from the simulation trials was 1.93 with a standard deviation of 0.20.
No. of breakdowns per week
Probability
Cumulative probability

0
.10
.10

1
.25
.35

2
.36
.71

3
.22
.93

4
.07
1.00

What is the probability of 2 or fewer breakdowns?
.25
.35
.71
.5 points

Question 14
Consider the following frequency of demand:

If the simulation begins with 0.8102, the simulated value for demand would be

.5 points

Question 15
Pseudorandom numbers exhibit __________ in order to be considered truly random.
Answer a limited number of possible outcomes
a uniform distribution
a detectable pattern
a detectable run of certain numbers

.5 points

Question 16
Coefficient of determination is the percentage of the variation in the __________ variable that results from the __________ variable.
independent, dependent
dependent, independent
independent, independent
.5 points

Question 17
__________ methods are the most common type of forecasting method for the long-term strategic planning process.
Qualitative
Time series
all of the above
.5 points

Question 18
__________ is a measure of the strength of the relationship between independent and dependent variables.
Linear regression
Coefficient of determination
Regression
.5 points

Question 19
Consider the following demand and forecast.
Period
Demand
Forecast

1
7
10

2
12
15

3
18
20

4
22

If MAD = 2, what is the forecast for period 4?
20
21
none of the above
.5 points

Question 20
In exponential smoothing, the closer alpha is to __________, the greater the reaction to the most recent demand.

-1 or 1
.5 points

Question 21
Which of the following possible values of alpha would cause exponential smoothing to respond the most slowly to sudden changes in forecast errors?
.10
.50
.90
.5 points

Question 22
Consider the following graph of sales.

Which of the following characteristics is exhibited by the data?
Trend plus seasonal
Seasonal only
None of the above
.5 points

Question 23
__________ is absolute error as a percentage of demand.
MAPD
Average error
.5 points

Question 24
__________ is a category of statistical techniques that uses historical data to predict future behavior.
Regression
Time series
Quantitative methods
.5 points

Question 25
The drying rate in an industrial process is dependent on many factors and varies according to the following distribution.

Compute the mean drying time. Use two places after the decimal.

Question 26
An online sweepstakes has the following payoffs and probabilities. Each person is limited to one entry.
The probability of winning at least \$1,000.00 is ________.

Question 27
A life insurance company wants to estimate their annual payouts. Assume that the probability distribution of the lifetimes of the participants is approximately a normal distribution with a mean of 68 years and a standard deviation of 4 years. What proportion of the plan recipients would receive payments beyond age 75? Round your answer to four places after the decimal.

Question 28
A fair die is rolled 8 times. What is the probability that an even number (2,4, 6) will occur between 2 and 4 times? Round your answer to four places after the decimal.

Question 29
An investor is considering 4 different opportunities, A, B, C, or D. The payoff for each opportunity will depend on the economic conditions, represented in the payoff table below.
Economic Condition
Poor Average Good Excellent
Investment (S1) (S2) (S3) (S4)
A 50 75 20 30
B 80 15 40 50
C -100 300 -50 10
D 25 25 25 25

If the probabilities of each economic condition are 0.5, 0.1, 0.35, and 0.05 respectively, what is the highest expected payoff?

Question 30
The local operations manager for the IRS must decide whether to hire 1, 2, or 3 temporary workers. He estimates that net revenues will vary with how well taxpayers comply with the new tax code.
If he thinks the chances of low, medium, and high compliance are 20%, 30%, and 50% respectively, what is the expected value of perfect information? Round your answer to the nearest dollar.

Question 31

A normal distribution has a mean of 500 and a standard deviation of 50. A manager wants to simulate one value from this distribution, and has drawn the number 1.4 randomly. What is the simulated value?

Question 32
Daily highs in Sacramento for the past week (from least to most recent) were: 95, 102, 101, 96, 95, 90 and 92. Develop a forecast for today using a 2 day moving average.

Question 33
Daily highs in Sacramento for the past week (from least to most recent) were: 95, 102, 101, 96, 95, 90 and 92. Develop a forecast for today using a weighted moving average, with weights of .6, .3 and .1, where the highest weights are applied to the most recent data.

Question 34
The following sales data are available for 2003-2008 :
Year
Sales
Forecast

2003
7
9

2004
12
10

2005
14
15

2006
20
22

2007
16
18

2008
25
21

Calculate the absolute value of the average error. Use three significant digits after the decimal.

Question 35
The following data summarizes the historical demand for a product.
Month
Actual Demand

March
20

April
25

May
40

June
35

July
30

August
45

Use exponential smoothing with α = .2 and the smoothed forecast for July is 32. Determine the smoothed forecast for August.

Question 36
Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame:

Compute a 3-period moving average for period 4. Use two places after the decimal.

Question 37
The following sales data are available for 2003-2008.
Determine a 4-year weighted moving average forecast for 2009, where weights are W1 = 0.1, W2 = 0.2, W3 = 0.2 and W4 = 0.5.

Question 38
This is the data from the last 4 weeks:
Use the equation of the regression line to forecast the increased sales for when the number of ads is 10.

Question 39
Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame:
Compute a 3-period moving average for period 6. Use two places after the decimal.