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Homework# Deterministic Techniques Assume No Uncertainty Exists In Parameters

**Submitted:** 5 years ago.**Category: **Homework

Customer Question

Deterministic techniques assume that no...

Deterministic techniques assume that no uncertainty exists in model parameters.

AnswerTrue

False

5 points

Question 2

A joint probability is the probability that two or more events that are mutually exclusive can occur simultaneously.

AnswerTrue

False

5 points

Question 3

An inspector correctly identifies defective products 90% of the time. For the next 10 products, the probability that he makes fewer than 2 incorrect inspections is 0.736.AnswerTrue

False

5 points

Question 4

A decision tree is a diagram consisting of circles decision nodes, square probability nodes, and branches.AnswerTrue

False

5 points

Question 5

Excel can only be used to simulate systems that can be represented by continuous random variables.AnswerTrue

False

5 points

Question 6

Simulation results will always equal analytical results if 30 trials of the simulation have been conducted.AnswerTrue

False

5 points

Question 7

The Delphi develops a consensus forecast about what will occur in the future.AnswerTrue

False

5 points

Question 8

Qualitative methods are the least common type of forecasting method for the long-term strategic planning process.AnswerTrue

False

5 points

Question 9

Assume that it takes a college student an average of 5 minutes to find a parking spot in the main parking lot. Assume also that this time is normally distributed with a standard deviation of 2 minutes. What time is exceeded by approximately 75% of the college students when trying to find a parking spot in the main parking lot?Answer

3.5 minutes

5.75 minutes

6.36 minutes

9.2 minutes

5 points

Question 10

In Bayesian analysis, additional information is used to alter the __________ probability of the occurrence of an event.Answer

marginal

conditional

binomial

revised

5 points

Question 11

The __________ is the expected value of the regret for each decision.Answer

expected value

expected opportunity loss

expected value of perfect information

none of the above

5 points

Question 12

Pseudorandom numbers exhibit __________ in order to be considered truly random.Answer

a limited number of possible outcomes

a uniform distribution

a detectable pattern

a detectable run of certain numbers

5 points

Question 13

Random numbers generated by a __________ process instead of a __________ process are pseudorandom numbers.Answer

physical / physical

physical / mathematical

mathematical / physical

mathematical / mathematical

5 points

Question 14

A seed value is a(n)Answer

steady state solution of a simulation experiment

number used to start a stream of random numbers

first run of a simulation model

analytic solution of a simulation experiment

5 points

Question 15

Consider the following frequency of demand:

If the simulation begins with 0.8102, the simulated value for demand would beAnswer

1

2

3

4

5 points

Question 16

Consider the following graph of sales.

Which of the following characteristics is exhibited by the data?Answer

Trend only

Trend plus seasonal

Cyclical only

None of the above

5 points

Question 17

Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame:

If the forecast for period 5 is equal to 275, use exponential smoothing with α = .40 to compute a forecast for period 7.Answer

273

277

267.8

286.2

5 points

Question 18

In exponential smoothing, the closer alpha is to __________, the greater the reaction to the most recent demand.Answer

-1

0

1

-1 or 1

5 points

Question 19

__________ is absolute error as a percentage of demand.Answer

Cumulative error

MAD

MAPD

Average error

5 points

Question 20

__________ is a measure of the strength of the relationship between independent and dependent variables.Answer

Correlation

Linear regression

Coefficient of determination

Regression

5 points

Question 21

__________ is a category of statistical techniques that uses historical data to predict future behavior.Answer

Qualitative methods

Regression

Time series

Quantitative methods

5 points

Question 22

__________ methods are the most common type of forecasting method for the long-term strategic planning process.Answer

Regression

Qualitative

Time series

all of the above

5 points

Question 23

__________ is the difference between the forecast and actual demand.Answer

Forecast mistake

Forecast error

MAD

Forecast accuracy

5 points

Question 24

Consider the following graph of sales.

Which of the following characteristics is exhibited by the data?Answer

Trend only

Trend plus seasonal

Seasonal only

None of the above

5 points

Question 25

The drying rate in an industrial process is dependent on many factors and varies according to the following distribution.

Compute the mean drying time. Use two places after the decimal.Answer

5 points

Question 26

An automotive center keeps tracks of customer complaints received each week. The probability distribution for complaints can be represented as a table or a graph, both shown below. The random variable xi represents the number of complaints, and p(xi) is the probability of receiving xi complaints.

xi 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

p(xi) 10 .15 .18 .20 .20 .10 .07

What is the average number of complaints received per week? Round your answer to two places after the decimal.Answer

5 points

Question 27

A loaf of bread is normally distributed with a mean of 22 oz and a standard deviation of 0.5 oz. What is the probability that a loaf is larger than 21 oz? Round your answer to four places after the decimal.Answer

5 points

Question 28

A fair die is rolled 8 times. What is the probability that an even number (2,4, 6) will occur between 2 and 4 times? Round your answer to four places after the decimal.Answer

5 points

Question 29

Consider the following decision tree.

What is the expected value at node 4? Round your answer to the nearest whole number. Do not include the dollar sign "$" in your answer.Answer

5 points

Question 30

The local operations manager for the IRS must decide whether to hire 1, 2, or 3 temporary workers. He estimates that net revenues will vary with how well taxpayers comply with the new tax code.

If he thinks the chances of low, medium, and high compliance are 20%, 30%, and 50% respectively, what is the expected value of perfect information? Round your answer to the nearest dollar.Answer

5 points

Question 31

Consider the following distribution and random numbers:

If a simulation begins with the first random number, what would the first simulation value would be __________.Answer

5 points

Question 32

The following data summarizes the historical demand for a product

Month Actual Demand

March 20

April 25

May 40

June 35

July 30

August 45

If the forecasted demand for June, July and August is 32, 38 and 42, respectively, what is MAPD? Write your answer in decimal form and not in percentages. For example, 15% should be written as 0.15. Use three significant digits after the decimal.Answer

5 points

Question 33

Given the following data, compute the MAD for the forecast.

Year Demand Forecast

2001 16 18

2002 20 19

2003 18 24

Answer

5 points

Question 34

Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame:

Compute a 3-period moving average for period 6. Use two places after the decimal.Answer

5 points

Question 35

Daily highs in Sacramento for the past week (from least to most recent) were: 95, 102, 101, 96, 95, 90 and 92. Develop a forecast for today using a 2 day moving average.Answer

5 points

Question 36

Robert wants to know if there is a relation between money spent on gambling and winnings.

What is the coefficient of determination? Use two significant places after the decimal.Answer

5 points

Question 37

The following sales data are available for 2003-2008.

Determine a 4-year weighted moving average forecast for 2009, where weights are W1 = 0.1, W2 = 0.2, W3 = 0.2 and W4 = 0.5.Answer

5 points

Question 38

Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame:

Compute a 3-period moving average for period 4. Use two places after the decimal.Answer

5 points

Question 39

The following data summarizes the historical demand for a product.

Month Actual Demand

March 20

April 25

May 40

June 35

July 30

August 45

Use exponential smoothing with α = .2 and the smoothed forecast for July is 32. Determine the smoothed forecast for August.Answer

5 points

Question 40

This is the data from the last 4 weeks:

Use the equation of the regression line to forecast the increased sales for when the number of ads is 10.Answer

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