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I can't tell you the exact odds of success. Even if I knew every detail of your case, I wouldn't be able to give you odds of success on appeal. What I can tell you is that the chances of success on appeal are generally much slimmer that at trial. The reason for this is that you are limited to the evidence that was presented at the trial, and then the appeals court does not re-weigh the evidence. So you have to show that there was an error of law made. In this specific case, the standard of review for the appellate court would be "abuse of discretion"-- so that you would have to show that the trial court judge abused his discretion in finding what he found.
In your case, your argument is that the judge apparently did not put the right amount of weight on your proof that you had paid the support. Whether you would have an issue that might result in reversal on appeal would depend on the judge's rationale and what specifically the issue was. Since all I have at this point is general information, all I can give are general answers... it is an issue that could be appealed, but you would have to show that the judge abused his discretion. This is a somewhat difficult standard for you.
Yes, you can use that in an appeal. You would have to argue that the "weigh and sufficiency" of the evidence does not support the findings by the judge, and you could use that instance as support.