The reason you can't get any answers is that probation is very tough to second guess. And while in some ways it appears as if your partner has turned his life around, he was also deeply in the wrong. I assume that you both know that he can't come out of this with a free pass. ''
He was -- still is -- a sentenced prisoner and his sentence
was suspended only because he was to have complied with the dictates of his probation. Because he didn't, he could be resentenced to the maximum time the law allows for the charge to which he pled. I have looked up the embezzlement statute, and as this was a felony charge, assuming there was only one count, it would appear that his maximum risk would be 3 years, minus the time he initially spent on the case before he began his term of probation. The possibility that the state might want some additional time on top of that for bail jumping can't be ruled out.
What he's got in his favor is his voluntary return. That was a gutsy thing to do after a 7 year absence and one that should indicate that he's accepted responsibiity for the mistake he made 7 years ago, has undergone some changes and is seeking to make this right. From what you have also said, if his past 7 years involved no contact with the criminal justice
system, that would be another plus. Finally, if he's done other admirable things -- you mentioned that he had been in school -- if he earned a degree, began a career, was earning good living, that too is commendable.
What he's got going against him is that even if he never really moved he ran scared for 7 years. That's a very long time, and it will have an effect on his credibility as a trustworthy person. He took a little problem and turned it into a big one. He was younger then and probably little more than a scared kid, but it's not wholly excusable either.
Probation has a whole arsenal of sanctions they can use when a probationer violates the conditions of his release that range from an increased reporting schedule on the one extreme to revoking probation outright on the other. What probation will do in your partner's case will depend mostly on whether they will still be willing to work with him at all. If they want to wash their hands of him completely, the only alternative would be jail.
If probation decides to revoke probation altogether, they usually will make a recommendation to the judge about how much time they want him to do. Although the judge generally gives probation's opinion a great deal of deference, the judge is not bound by probation's recommendation. If probation is revoked, the judge has the power to resentence the defendant to an appropriate jail alternative defined by the state's sentencing law for the crime he originally pled to. The judge can also order probation to take him back, though again, I don't think it's likely to be his first inclination.
I'm guessing that the best he'd be likely to get here would be electronic monitoring, if his lawyer pushes real hard for it, and I don't think it's unreasonable for him to get that under the circumstances that you've described. But if he has to do jail, it will be well in excess of 30 days.