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Category: Calculus and Above
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# Just that questiosn : if 30% of obese patients develop

### Customer Question

just that questiosn
Customer: if 30% of obese patients develop diabetes and a physician sees 10/ obese patients, what is the prabil
ity that half will develop diabetes
JA: Is there anything else important you think the Advanced Math Tutor should know?
Customer: no
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Submitted: 1 year ago.
Category: Calculus and Above
Expert:  Ryan replied 1 year ago.

Hi,

Thank you for using the site. I'll be happy to help you with this.

This is a binomial distribution probability problem because it meets all four requirements:

1. There are a fixed number of trials (10 patients)

2. The are only two outcomes for each trial (patient either develops diabetes, or they don't)

3. The probability of "success" is the same for each trial (30%)

4. The outcome of each trial is independent (one patient developing diabetes does not affect whether the any other patient does or does not)

The formula to use for this probability is:

P(x) = C(n, x) * (p)^x * (1 - p)^(n - x)

where n is the total number of trials (10), x is the number of successful outcomes (5 in this case, since the question asks for the probability that "half" of the 10 develop diabetes), and p is the probability of "success" for each individual trial (30% = 0.30). C(n, x) is the notation that represents the number of combinations of "x" items chosen from a pool of "n" items.

The probability that 5 of the 10 patients develop diabetes is then:

P(5) = C(10, 5) * (0.3)^5 * (1 - 0.3)^(10 - 5)

P(5) = C(10, 5) * (0.3)^5 * (0.7)^5

P(5) = 252 * 0.0024 * 0.1681

P(5) = 0.1029