I can help here.
First, you are right about the 10% penalty ... In your situation that's about all the QDRO protects (since the intent is to distribute).
Do remember, however, that the receiving spouse can roll into their own plan and continue that tax deferral (might make some sense, because there would only be a taxable event as the money is distributed, and if it might not be needed all in one tax year the receiving spouse can defer some of that taxation
However, another aspect of the QDRO process is that if the receiving spouse decides to roll the assets
(must be within a 60 day window), NOW the 10% penalty applies again - to the receiving spouse - as the assets are distributed.
So THAT decision turns on how quickly the money might be needed.
In terms of your tax calculations, your federal calculations are spot on.
THe difficulty in calculating your CA taxes are that we don't know that you wife's other income might be.
You show an understanding in the calculations that whatever taxation comes from the distributions will be at the margin (on top of the other income for the year).
Can you provide a ballpark estimate of both you and your wifes OTHER income (income other than the IRA and 401(k) distributions) as it will look in 2013.
Then if will be possible to estimate each of your CA income tax.
FYI, here are the CA rates for 2013, for single taxpayers:
For earnings between $0.00 and $7,124, you'll pay 1.00%For earnings between $7,124.00 and $16,890, you'll pay 2.00% plus $71.24
For earnings between $16,890.00 and $26,657, you'll pay 4.00% plus $266.56
For earnings between $26,657.00 and $37,005, you'll pay 6.00% plus $657.24
For earnings between $37,005.00 and $46,766, you'll pay 8.00% plus $1,278.12
For earnings between $46,766.00 and $1,000,000, you'll pay 9.30% plus $2,059.00
For earnings over $1,000,000.00, you'll pay 10.30% plus $90,709.76
Let me know ...