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SUBJECT: 1972 COMPLETELY REVERSED?? I have a couple relatives in Alabama whom are Dolphins fans but are afraid that they could end up skunked for the season meaning a complete reverse of that famous 1972 season. They sure want them to avoid a skunk and save one for Cam. So I ask with four games to go do you think the ODDS of them salvaging ONE WIN are BETTER than EITHER OF THESE EVENTS occuring?: (A) That Tiger Woods will score a "60" OR better his very next round of 18 holes, OR (B) That anywhere in Wisconsin will see a high temperature at OR warmer than 64 degrees Christmas day this year?? Please remember I mean that EITHER one of the two items I mentioned above, not neccessarily both. My relatives are afraid they,re just as slim as that so if you do really believe the odds are better than just one or the other item occuring, can you explain why Cam,s Dolphins chances are not as slim as what I mentioned??

Customer (name blocked for privacy)

Hi there!

Here's how I'd look at it:
The Dolphins have lost 12 games in a row this season. The odds do favor them losing the rest. The odds of them winning one of their games is low, at least according to most sports writers and fans.

However, the two other examples are even less likely to happen, meaning you are right that the Dolphins have a better chance of winning one of their games than Woods scoring a 60 or better, or the high in Wisconsin making it up to 64. Here's why:

In over 100 years of recorded weather, the high has never made it above 61 F in Milwaukee on Christmas (http://www.weather.com/outlook/travel/businesstraveler/wxclimatology/daily/USWI0455)

In his last 60 games, Woods has not done better than 63 (and even that was better than his average). http://www.pgatour.com/players/00/87/93/results/

Therefore, those other things are indeed less likely than the Dolphins getting a win this season.

Let me know if you have any questions. If not, thanks for pressing "Accept".

-Scott

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