This is quite odd.
If indeed the prop is not out issue, I haven't ruled that out yet, I am thinking that exploratory surgery is about the only method of getting to the bottom of this issue.
Before we start removing bolts, take a small sample of the lowerunit oil from the bottom plug. There could be a very small amount of very fine metal particles on the magnetic plug but the oil should be clean of any metal flakes and unburned.
Should this come out as not an issue and the oil is clean. We would test the propeller fully or simply replace it. Once sure its not the prop, we need to remove the lowerunit and start inspecting areas of possible cause. Drive shaft and crankshaft splines, gears and shift parts in lowerunit....ect.
One more test that I would consider is to remove the spark plugs (Did I mention Remove the spark plugs and place them on another bench). Block the prop with a 2x4 or piece of wood between the cavitation plate and the prop, now turn the flywheel with the engine in gear. Don't put much torque on the flywheel , but what we are attempting to do is test the unit as a system. If we took a pry bar or extension and used that I am sure that damage will likely occur, so be careful with this test, and it will likely tell us a lot.
Short answer: If the oil is clean, and considering all that you indicated in the question, I believe we still have a issue with the prop or how it is attached to the shaft.
Odd problem it certanly is... How much torque on the flywheel is too much?? I have allready tried to make the prop spin on the bushing with the motor in gear ,and acctualy "kick" started the engine that way. truely a "Hey ya'all watch this " moment for sure.
I'll drain the gearcase oil, and look for chips.
My gut instinct tells me it's the prop assembly. But why would the alignment marks be Exactly where I put them before the last episode?
Joe
Possibly the marks made on the prop is not where it is slipping...????
Lets go about the test a little different. We can "jam" or block the flywheel from turning and put the engine into gear. Now do the "Foot Trick" of turning the propeller again. I believe our issue will become apparent. Once again remove the spark plugs. ( Lets not turn this into a YouTube incident..)
Marine Mechanic
21 Years Experience as Mechanic, 18 Yrs Boat Yard Owner/Mechanic, Factory Certified