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Santa Fe black on white is a style of pottery that occurs in about 61%of the pot shards found in the Bandelier National Monument area . At one excavation site 8641 pot shards have been found that have not yet been cleaned and identified.
What is the probability that
a) fewer than 5200 are Santa FE black on white?
b) more than 5400 are Santa FE black on white?
c)between 5200and 5400 are Santa FE black on white?
d) In the solution to this problem, What is n? p? q? Does it appear that both np and nq are larger than 5? Why is this an important consideration?
Submitted: 316 days and 12 hours ago.
Category: Math
Value: $9
Status: AWAITING CUSTOMER ACTION
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Optional Information
Subject: statistics
Posted by
Sk1llz
316 days and 11 hours ago.
Answer
Using normal approximation we get:
X ~ N(8641*0.61, 8641*0.61(1-0.61)) = N(5271.01, 2055.6939)
(A)
Less than 5200 defectives means 5199 or less on the discrete scale, but 5199 extends up as far as 5199.5 on the continuous scale. So the approximation is the area under the Normal curve below 5199.5. (This is called the continuity correction)
P(X < 5199.5) = P(Z < (5199.5-5271.01)/√2055.6939) = P(Z < -1.577) = 0.0574
(B)
More than 5400 defectives means 5401 or more on the discrete scale, but 5401 extends down as far as 5400.5 on the continuous scale. So the approximation is the area above the Normal curve above 5400.5.
P(X > 5400.5) = P(Z > (5400.5-5271.01)/√2055.6939) = (P > 2.856) = 0.0021
(C)
P(5199.5 < X < 5400.5) = P(-1.577 < Z < 2.856) = 0.94
(D)
n = 8641, p = 0.61, q = 1-0.61, yes both np and nq are larger than 5. This is needed for a good normal approximation.
Sincerely,
Sk1llz
Accepted Answer
We hava a binomial distribution with n=8641 and p=0.61 and q=1-p=0.39
d) If nq and np > 5 we can aprox probabilties using the following normal distribution
X=N( np, np(1-p))
X=N(5271.01,2055.69)
a) P(X<5200)=P((X-5271.01)/√2055.69<(5200-5271.01)/√2055.69)
=P(Z<-1.5661765)=
0.058654
b)P(X>5400)=P((X-5271.01)/√2055.69>(5400-5271.01)/√2055.69)
=P(Z>2.844967)=
0.0022208
c) 1-a)-b)=
0.9391252
Thanks
Steve
Expert:
Steve
Pos. Feedback:
100.0 %
Accepts:
Answered:
1/10/2009
Teacher
I teach Calculus and Probability in an University since 1994
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