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Question

Santa Fe black on white is a style of pottery that occurs in about 61%of the pot shards found in the Bandelier National Monument area . At one excavation site 8641 pot shards have been found that have not yet been cleaned and identified.

What is the probability that
a) fewer than 5200 are Santa FE black on white?
b) more than 5400 are Santa FE black on white?
c)between 5200and 5400 are Santa FE black on white?
d) In the solution to this problem, What is n? p? q? Does it appear that both np and nq are larger than 5? Why is this an important consideration?

Submitted: 316 days and 12 hours ago.
Category: Math
Value: $9
Status: AWAITING CUSTOMER ACTION
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Optional Information

Subject: statistics

Posted by Sk1llz 316 days and 11 hours ago.

Answer

Using normal approximation we get:

X ~ N(8641*0.61, 8641*0.61(1-0.61)) = N(5271.01, 2055.6939)

(A)

Less than 5200 defectives means 5199 or less on the discrete scale, but 5199 extends up as far as 5199.5 on the continuous scale. So the approximation is the area under the Normal curve below 5199.5. (This is called the continuity correction)

P(X < 5199.5) = P(Z < (5199.5-5271.01)/√2055.6939) = P(Z < -1.577) = 0.0574


(B)

More than 5400 defectives means 5401 or more on the discrete scale, but 5401 extends down as far as 5400.5 on the continuous scale. So the approximation is the area above the Normal curve above 5400.5.

P(X > 5400.5) = P(Z > (5400.5-5271.01)/√2055.6939) = (P > 2.856) = 0.0021

(C)

P(5199.5 < X < 5400.5) = P(-1.577 < Z < 2.856) = 0.94

(D)

n = 8641, p = 0.61, q = 1-0.61, yes both np and nq are larger than 5. This is needed for a good normal approximation.

Sincerely,
Sk1llz

Accepted Answer



We hava a binomial distribution with n=8641 and p=0.61 and q=1-p=0.39

d) If nq and np > 5 we can aprox probabilties using the following normal distribution

X=N( np, np(1-p))

X=N(5271.01,2055.69)

a) P(X<5200)=P((X-5271.01)/√2055.69<(5200-5271.01)/√2055.69)
=P(Z<-1.5661765)=0.058654

b)P(X>5400)=P((X-5271.01)/√2055.69>(5400-5271.01)/√2055.69)
=P(Z>2.844967)=0.0022208

c) 1-a)-b)=0.9391252

Thanks

Steve

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Expert: Steve
Pos. Feedback: 100.0 %
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Answered: 1/10/2009

Teacher

I teach Calculus and Probability in an University since 1994

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