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Am I correct in assuming there is no plumbing above this ceiling?
Then I would suspect it's a failed wax ring from the upstairs bathroom or water leaking from the upstairs shower.
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I'd pull the toilet and look at the wax ring. It will show signs of leaking if it is the culprit. 90% sure it is. I always use to wax rings upstairs because the risk of damage is so high.
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No problem. If needed we can do a phone call to help you pull and reset the toilet.