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While I can give you probability of the situation, as you know there's no guarantee in medicine and PEP is ALWAYS the safer route.
For HIV transmission, you need body fluid and/or blood contact. Needle stick from glucose checks are rather tiny produce blood with compression of the tissue - it would be theoretically possibly that even with touching blood could have been excreted and there was blood-body fluid contact.
My recommendation would be for PEP.
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