Hello,my name is Judith. Thank you for this opportunity to answer your questions.
1 - what are the chances they will actually be granted the immigrant visas? Is it a absolutely no, or the consular officers sometimes overlook that fact and still grant the visas?
The consul cannot overlook the immigration violation. The law does not allow it. They have a 10 year bar and they consul already knows of the overstay, that is why they asked for proof that there was no unlawful presence. They found the records in the background check.
INA §212(a)(9)(B)(i)(II)Aliens who are unlawfully present in the United States for one year or more
*And subsequently depart the United States(trigger the bar)
*Are inadmissible for ten years
2 - if they are denied their IVs, what are their chances of getting I-601 approved?
(background: I just had my first baby, so I'm hoping that they can come to the US to help care for my baby. Since both my husband and I have demanding jobs with long hours, we won't be able to get off work in time to pick up our baby from day care on a regular basis)
I doubt that your hardship will be found to be extraordinary. It is a typical hardship one might face based on separation.
You can read this article that provides an analysis of levels of hardship.
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Judith, thanks for your honest answer. It is so frustrating because if they are not going to get the IV (given the situation is so black and white), why did they approve I-130, and why did NVC approves the forwards the case to Guangzhou consulate? You'd imagine they would notice it right from the get go, so we can skip all the time, effort and money.
Thanks for your help.
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