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GLENN
GLENN, Teacher
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Do the following forecasting data below: exponential

Customer Question

Do the following forecasting for the data below: exponential smoothing, trend anaylsis and seasonality.
Month Time Time FTE Traffic Sales Quad Quad Quad Actual as % of Trend Actual as % of Trend Actual as % of Trend
Year ^2 Sales Person Location Location FTE Traffic Sales FTE Traffic Sales Month Seasonal Index
Jan-14 1 1 113 13446 $573,600 115 12959 $653,824 98% 104% 88% 1 88%
Feb-14 2 4 121 12269 $706,800 117 13196 $651,485 104% 93% 108% 2 108%
Mar-14 3 9 120 14161 $737,400 118 13395 $649,048 102% 106% 114% 3 114%
Apr-14 4 16 120 13005 $660,200 119 13557 $646,513 101% 96% 102% 4 102%
May-14 5 25 117 12749 $572,600 119 13681 $643,880 98% 93% 89% 5 89%
Jun-14 6 36 114 12742 $591,600 120 13769 $641,149 95% 93% 92% 6 92%
Jul-14 7 49 116 12622 $584,800 120 13819 $638,319 96% 91% 92% 7 92%
Aug-14 8 64 119 13010 $746,600 120 13832 $635,392 99% 94% 118% 8 118%
Sep-14 9 81 125 16966 $565,200 120 13808 $632,366 104% 123% 89% 9 89%
Oct-14 10 100 120 17246 $683,300 120 13746 $629,242 100% 125% 109% 10 109%
Nov-14 11 121 122 15192 $628,400 119 13647 $626,019 102% 111% 100% 11 100%
Dec-14 12 144 120 14451 $751,800 118 13511 $622,699 101% 107% 121% 12 121%
Jan-15 13 169 118 13476 $630,200 117 13338 $619,280 100% 101% 102%
Feb-15 14 196 115 10684 $533,800 116 13127 $615,763 99% 81% 87%
Mar-15 15 225 116 11753 $562,000 115 12880 $612,148 101% 91% 92%
Apr-15 16 256 113 11014 $538,200 113 12594 $608,435 100% 87% 88%
May-15 17 289 111 11258 $598,800 111 12272 $604,624 100% 92% 99%
Jun-15 18 324 110 11153 $607,400 109 11913 $600,714 101% 94% 101%
Jul-15 19 361 106 11091 $576,400 107 11516 $596,707 99% 96% 97%
Aug-15 20 400 101 11090 $685,200 104 11082 $592,601 97% 100% 116%
Sep-15 21 441 101 11638 $607,400 102 10611 $588,397 99% 110% 103%
Oct-15 22 484 101 11339 $551,000 99 10102 $584,095 102% 112% 94%
Nov-15 23 529 95 9556 $579,694
Dec-15 24 576 92 8973 $575,196
Submitted: 1 year ago.
Category: Homework
Expert:  akch2002 replied 1 year ago.

Can you forward data in excel?

Customer: replied 1 year ago.
Expert:  akch2002 replied 1 year ago.

I will opt out as I am not sure.

Customer: replied 1 year ago.
Ok Thank you!
Customer: replied 1 year ago.
I need forecasting on the data in excel. Can use whatever data in excel that would be relevant.
Customer: replied 1 year ago.
Also I would like a forecast for 12 months.
Expert:  GLENN replied 1 year ago.

Hi

When do you need the answers for these?

Customer: replied 1 year ago.
If possible by tomorrow morning?
Customer: replied 1 year ago.
or early afternoon
Expert:  GLENN replied 1 year ago.

I will try

Customer: replied 1 year ago.
thank you for your help
Expert:  GLENN replied 1 year ago.

welcome

Customer: replied 1 year ago.
Just checking in
Expert:  GLENN replied 1 year ago.

I am still answering,

Customer: replied 1 year ago.
OK. So that's good news
Expert:  GLENN replied 1 year ago.

ok

Customer: replied 1 year ago.
you are able to get trough it?
Expert:  GLENN replied 1 year ago.

will update you later

Customer: replied 1 year ago.
Just checking in
Expert:  GLENN replied 1 year ago.

By the way, what column in the excel file do you want to be forecasted?

Also, can you give description for each column, what does each mean?

(by the way, I took some sleep since it is now 3am it our place.)

Customer: replied 1 year ago.
the time is customer wait times and the column with various numbers is the sales persons Id. Then sales by location. We want to forecast sales over 12 months and reduce wait times.
Expert:  GLENN replied 1 year ago.

you want to forecast sales in column F right?

Customer: replied 1 year ago.
That's correct
Expert:  GLENN replied 1 year ago.

ok

Customer: replied 1 year ago.
Thanks a million
Expert:  GLENN replied 1 year ago.

welcome

Customer: replied 1 year ago.
How is it coming
Expert:  GLENN replied 1 year ago.

will update you later

Customer: replied 1 year ago.
OK. I just want to make sure that this is something that can be fulfilled. ☺
Thank you
Expert:  GLENN replied 1 year ago.

ok, do not worry, I will do all I can to send to you the answers, just give me some more time (some more hrs)

Expert:  GLENN replied 1 year ago.

will update you later

Customer: replied 1 year ago.
OK no worries. Thanks again
Expert:  GLENN replied 1 year ago.

ok

Customer: replied 1 year ago.
the question here is can the company from the data keep the same sales by reducing head count and stock. Use surplus weights that impact the trend line for 1-12 months using solver and exponential smoothing
Expert:  GLENN replied 1 year ago.

ok

Customer: replied 1 year ago.
Is that helpful
Expert:  GLENN replied 1 year ago.

yup

Customer: replied 1 year ago.
Just checking in
Expert:  GLENN replied 1 year ago.

ok

Expert:  GLENN replied 1 year ago.

Hi there!

I have just finished the exponential smoothing and the trend analysis. By the way, what value of t (time) do you want me to predict (forecast) the value of sales? Is it t = 23? , Also what value of smoothing constant do you want me to use? As of now I used alpha = 0.5 (for smoothing constant, but you can change it at will, and the formula and values will just automatically be adjusted)

Please reply.

Expert:  GLENN replied 1 year ago.

Also for Seasonality, do i need to use per month (as what you have already done) as the season? Please reply

Customer: replied 1 year ago.
per month 1-12
Expert:  GLENN replied 1 year ago.

I have just finished the exponential smoothing and the trend analysis. By the way, what value of t (time) do you want me to predict (forecast) the value of sales? Is it t = 23? , Also what value of smoothing constant do you want me to use? As of now I used alpha = 0.5 (for smoothing constant, but you can change it at will, and the formula and values will just automatically be adjusted)

Please reply.

Customer: replied 1 year ago.
That should be fine
Expert:  GLENN replied 1 year ago.

ah ok, but in the forecasting using seasonality, I forecasted the next year, 2016 is that ok?

Customer: replied 1 year ago.
Next year is good
Expert:  GLENN replied 1 year ago.

By the way in the forecasting using trend analysis, you can put what ever value of t inside the orange-colored box, I made, and the forecasted value for sales will be automatically computed, same with the exponential smoothing, you can put whatever value of the smoothing constant in the orange box then the forecast value for sales will also be adjusted accordingly.

Customer: replied 1 year ago.
OK great, when your done can you send me the excel file
Expert:  GLENN replied 1 year ago.

sure, will send it in few mins, please hold on. kindly rate also the answer i will send you. Thanks.

Expert:  GLENN replied 1 year ago.

Hi there!

Attached below is the link of the word file of the complete answers. Please copy and paste the link, and download .

https://www.mediafire.com/?nod0qbeu96d2697

Thanks

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Customer: replied 1 year ago.
can you attach an excel file?
Expert:  GLENN replied 1 year ago.
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