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# APPLYING BAYES THEOREM

### Customer Question

APPLYING BAYES THEOREM
Submitted: 3 years ago.
Category: Homework
Expert:  akch2002 replied 3 years ago.
Customer: replied 3 years ago.

I did a survey for a project and need to apply Bayes Theorem from the results:

Question 4: Income Level

Response Percentage

20000> 5 10.2%

20,001-40,000 6 12.2%

41,000-60,000 14 28.6%

61,000-80,000 13 26.5%

80,000< 11 22.4%

This is an example of how it should be set up:

 Event Prior ProbabilityP(Ci) Conditional ProbabilityP(B|Ci) Joint ProbabilityP(Ai and B) Posterior ProbabilityP(Ai|B) 21-30 .33 .16 0.0528 0.0528/0.1551 = 0.35 31-40 .41 .20 0.082 0.082/0.1551 = 0.52 41-50 .19 .09 0.0171 0.0171/0.1551 =0.11 50+ .08 .04 0.0032 0.0032/0.1551 =0.02 P(B) = 0.1551 = 1.00
Expert:  akch2002 replied 3 years ago.
Sorry, I won't be able to help you and will opt out.
Customer: replied 3 years ago.
ok, please do so quickly to release my deposit.
Expert:  Steve replied 3 years ago.
Hi,

Can you clarify the question ?

Steve
Expert:  Steve replied 3 years ago.
I think you have the "Prior Probability"

I can do the example considering the same "Conditional Probabilities" of the table above

Let me know....

Steve
Customer: replied 3 years ago.

ok. it was a survey we did and i need help applying the theorem to the results. what info can i give you?

Expert:  Steve replied 3 years ago.
Give me all the info that you have

For example definitions of Ai, Bi, Ci

I kknow how to apply the theorem but tell me the success B given and Conditional Probabilities
Customer: replied 3 years ago.

it was suggested using Bayes Theorem in regards to Q8 and demographic questions to predict.

1. Gender
2. Education Level
3. Income
4. Age

I suggest we break this up and everyone take one of the demographics and in relation to Q8 predict positive or negative views by consumer utilizing Bayes Theorem.

Question 8 : Would knowing that banks refused government taxpayer bailout funds influence your decision to get a loan over your current lender?

Responses Percentage

Yes 22 44.9%

No 27 55.1%

Expert:  Steve replied 3 years ago.
But, that´s another question (question 8)

Steve
Expert:  Steve replied 3 years ago.
Or if you want to upload a file

Use www.wikisend.com (it is free and easy to use)

Steve
Customer: replied 3 years ago.

OK. Let me see. I attached what another student turned in as part of the assignment.

Expert:  Steve replied 3 years ago.

Steve

Customer: replied 3 years ago.
do i need to register for that site? i'm trying to sign up.
Expert:  Steve replied 3 years ago.
No, you do not have to register

Steve
Customer: replied 3 years ago.
I'm getting an error message when i try to upload. it says website under maintenance. i'll keep trying.
Expert:  Steve replied 3 years ago.
That´s strange

The site works for me now

Steve
Customer: replied 3 years ago.

Expert:  Steve replied 3 years ago.
Yes, you can upload a word file

another site is:

www.mediafire.com (but you have to register there)

Steve
Expert:  Steve replied 3 years ago.
or

Steve
Customer: replied 3 years ago.
THAT WORKED -

http://www.mediafire.com/?zla8il6cip44xlr

Expert:  Steve replied 3 years ago.
Ok, i will check the link now

Steve
Customer: replied 3 years ago.

i'm looking for definitions of Ai, Bi, Ci

Expert:  Steve replied 3 years ago.
I have the file

But for question 4 is missing info

I only see a table (that helps for some probabilities)

But i need the question too and some info about the given sucess to apply Bayes

Steve
Expert:  Steve replied 3 years ago.
I have to go out now, i will be back later today (about 6 pm)

Steve
Customer: replied 3 years ago.

the survey had 49 participants and the percentage on there are the responses based on that 49 people who responded. i have not done the bayes theorem before so i am not sure what other info is needed. what info is needed for question 4? this is the survey results for that question.

Question 4: Income Level

Response Percentage

20000> 5 10.2%

20,001-40,000 6 12.2%

41,000-60,000 14 28.6%

61,000-80,000 13 26.5%

80,000< 11 22.4%

Expert:  Steve replied 3 years ago.
When you apply Bayes´s theorem you need to have a sucess given

with that table you can compute "Priori probabilities" but the info missing is:

"Conditional probabilities"

Steve
Customer: replied 3 years ago.
i am supposed to use the answers from question 8 to create the probability between the different income levels purchasing based on how many people answered the survey.
Customer: replied 3 years ago.
Relist: Other.
hasnt answered yet and question is time sensitive

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