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Scott, MIT Graduate

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Deterministic techniques assume no uncertainty exists in parameters

Customer Question

Deterministic techniques assume that no uncertainty exists in model parameters. AnswerTrue False 5 points

Question 2 A joint probability is the probability that two or more events that are mutually exclusive can occur simultaneously. AnswerTrue False 5 points

Question 3 An inspector correctly identifies defective products 90% of the time. For the next 10 products, the probability that he makes fewer than 2 incorrect inspections is 0.736.AnswerTrue False 5 points

Question 4 A decision tree is a diagram consisting of circles decision nodes, square probability nodes, and branches.AnswerTrue False 5 points

Question 5 Excel can only be used to simulate systems that can be represented by continuous random variables.AnswerTrue False 5 points

Question 6 Simulation results will always equal analytical results if 30 trials of the simulation have been conducted.AnswerTrue False 5 points

Question 7 The Delphi develops a consensus forecast about what will occur in the future.AnswerTrue False 5 points

Question 8 Qualitative methods are the least common type of forecasting method for the long-term strategic planning process.AnswerTrue False 5 points

Question 9 Assume that it takes a college student an average of 5 minutes to find a parking spot in the main parking lot. Assume also that this time is normally distributed with a standard deviation of 2 minutes. What time is exceeded by approximately 75% of the college students when trying to find a parking spot in the main parking lot?Answer 3.5 minutes 5.75 minutes 6.36 minutes 9.2 minutes 5 points

Question 10 In Bayesian analysis, additional information is used to alter the __________ probability of the occurrence of an event.Answer marginal conditional binomial revised 5 points

Question 11 The __________ is the expected value of the regret for each decision.Answer expected value expected opportunity loss expected value of perfect information none of the above 5 points

Question 12 Pseudorandom numbers exhibit __________ in order to be considered truly random.Answer a limited number of possible outcomes a uniform distribution a detectable pattern a detectable run of certain numbers 5 points

Question 13 Random numbers generated by a __________ process instead of a __________ process are pseudorandom numbers.Answer physical / physical physical / mathematical mathematical / physical mathematical / mathematical 5 points

Question 14 A seed value is a(n)Answer steady state solution of a simulation experiment number used to start a stream of random numbers first run of a simulation model analytic solution of a simulation experiment 5 points

Question 15 Consider the following frequency of demand:

If the simulation begins with 0.8102, the simulated value for demand would beAnswer 1 2 3 4 5 points

Question 16 Consider the following graph of sales.

Which of the following characteristics is exhibited by the data?Answer Trend only Trend plus seasonal Cyclical only None of the above 5 points

Question 17 Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame: If the forecast for period 5 is equal to 275, use exponential smoothing with α = .40 to compute a forecast for period 7.Answer 273 277 267.8 286.2 5 points

Question 18 In exponential smoothing, the closer alpha is to __________, the greater the reaction to the most recent demand.Answer -1 0 1 -1 or 1 5 points

Question 19 __________ is absolute error as a percentage of demand.Answer Cumulative error MAD MAPD Average error 5 points

Question 20 __________ is a measure of the strength of the relationship between independent and dependent variables.Answer Correlation Linear regression Coefficient of determination Regression 5 points

Question 21 __________ is a category of statistical techniques that uses historical data to predict future behavior.Answer Qualitative methods Regression Time series Quantitative methods 5 points

Question 22 __________ methods are the most common type of forecasting method for the long-term strategic planning process.Answer Regression Qualitative Time series all of the above 5 points

Question 23 __________ is the difference between the forecast and actual demand.Answer Forecast mistake Forecast error MAD Forecast accuracy 5 points

Question 24 Consider the following graph of sales.

Which of the following characteristics is exhibited by the data?Answer Trend only Trend plus seasonal Seasonal only None of the above 5 points

Question 25 The drying rate in an industrial process is dependent on many factors and varies according to the following distribution. Compute the mean drying time. Use two places after the decimal.Answer 5 points

Question 26 An automotive center keeps tracks of customer complaints received each week. The probability distribution for complaints can be represented as a table or a graph, both shown below. The random variable xi represents the number of complaints, and p(xi) is the probability of receiving xi complaints.

xi 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 p(xi) 10 .15 .18 .20 .20 .10 .07

What is the average number of complaints received per week? Round your answer to two places after the decimal.Answer 5 points

Question 27 A loaf of bread is normally distributed with a mean of 22 oz and a standard deviation of 0.5 oz. What is the probability that a loaf is larger than 21 oz? Round your answer to four places after the decimal.Answer 5 points

Question 28 A fair die is rolled 8 times. What is the probability that an even number (2,4, 6) will occur between 2 and 4 times? Round your answer to four places after the decimal.Answer 5 points

Question 29 Consider the following decision tree.

What is the expected value at node 4? Round your answer to the nearest whole number. Do not include the dollar sign "$" in your answer.Answer 5 points

Question 30 The local operations manager for the IRS must decide whether to hire 1, 2, or 3 temporary workers. He estimates that net revenues will vary with how well taxpayers comply with the new tax code.

If he thinks the chances of low, medium, and high compliance are 20%, 30%, and 50% respectively, what is the expected value of perfect information? Round your answer to the nearest dollar.Answer 5 points

Question 31 Consider the following distribution and random numbers:

If a simulation begins with the first random number, what would the first simulation value would be __________.Answer 5 points

Question 32 The following data summarizes the historical demand for a product Month Actual Demand March 20 April 25 May 40 June 35 July 30 August 45

If the forecasted demand for June, July and August is 32, 38 and 42, respectively, what is MAPD? Write your answer in decimal form and not in percentages. For example, 15% should be written as 0.15. Use three significant digits after the decimal.Answer 5 points

Question 33 Given the following data, compute the MAD for the forecast.

Question 34 Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame:

Compute a 3-period moving average for period 6. Use two places after the decimal.Answer 5 points

Question 35 Daily highs in Sacramento for the past week (from least to most recent) were: 95, 102, 101, 96, 95, 90 and 92. Develop a forecast for today using a 2 day moving average.Answer 5 points

Question 36 Robert wants to know if there is a relation between money spent on gambling and winnings.

What is the coefficient of determination? Use two significant places after the decimal.Answer 5 points

Question 37 The following sales data are available for 2003-2008.

Determine a 4-year weighted moving average forecast for 2009, where weights are W1 = 0.1, W2 = 0.2, W3 = 0.2 and W4 = 0.5.Answer 5 points

Question 38 Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame:

Compute a 3-period moving average for period 4. Use two places after the decimal.Answer 5 points

Question 39 The following data summarizes the historical demand for a product. Month Actual Demand March 20 April 25 May 40 June 35 July 30 August 45

Use exponential smoothing with α = .2 and the smoothed forecast for July is 32. Determine the smoothed forecast for August.Answer 5 points

Question 40 This is the data from the last 4 weeks:

Use the equation of the regression line to forecast the increased sales for when the number of ads is 10.Answer

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