Deterministic techniques assume that no uncertainty exists in model parameters. AnswerTrueFalse5 pointsQuestion 2A joint probability is the probability that two or more events that are mutually exclusive can occur simultaneously. AnswerTrueFalse5 pointsQuestion 3An inspector correctly identifies defective products 90% of the time. For the next 10 products, the probability that he makes fewer than 2 incorrect inspections is 0.736.AnswerTrueFalse5 pointsQuestion 4A decision tree is a diagram consisting of circles decision nodes, square probability nodes, and branches.AnswerTrueFalse5 pointsQuestion 5Excel can only be used to simulate systems that can be represented by continuous random variables.AnswerTrueFalse5 pointsQuestion 6Simulation results will always equal analytical results if 30 trials of the simulation have been conducted.AnswerTrueFalse5 pointsQuestion 7The Delphi develops a consensus forecast about what will occur in the future.AnswerTrueFalse5 pointsQuestion 8Qualitative methods are the least common type of forecasting method for the long-term strategic planning process.AnswerTrueFalse5 pointsQuestion 9Assume that it takes a college student an average of 5 minutes to find a parking spot in the main parking lot. Assume also that this time is normally distributed with a standard deviation of 2 minutes. What time is exceeded by approximately 75% of the college students when trying to find a parking spot in the main parking lot?Answer3.5 minutes5.75 minutes6.36 minutes9.2 minutes5 pointsQuestion 10In Bayesian analysis, additional information is used to alter the __________ probability of the occurrence of an event.Answermarginalconditionalbinomialrevised5 pointsQuestion 11The __________ is the expected value of the regret for each decision.Answerexpected valueexpected opportunity lossexpected value of perfect informationnone of the above5 pointsQuestion 12Pseudorandom numbers exhibit __________ in order to be considered truly random.Answera limited number of possible outcomesa uniform distributiona detectable patterna detectable run of certain numbers 5 pointsQuestion 13Random numbers generated by a __________ process instead of a __________ process are pseudorandom numbers.Answerphysical / physicalphysical / mathematicalmathematical / physicalmathematical / mathematical5 pointsQuestion 14A seed value is a(n)Answersteady state solution of a simulation experimentnumber used to start a stream of random numbersfirst run of a simulation modelanalytic solution of a simulation experiment5 pointsQuestion 15Consider the following frequency of demand:
If the simulation begins with 0.8102, the simulated value for demand would beAnswer12345 pointsQuestion 16Consider the following graph of sales.
Which of the following characteristics is exhibited by the data?AnswerTrend onlyTrend plus seasonalCyclical onlyNone of the above5 pointsQuestion 17Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame: If the forecast for period 5 is equal to 275, use exponential smoothing with α = .40 to compute a forecast for period 7.Answer273277267.8286.25 pointsQuestion 18In exponential smoothing, the closer alpha is to __________, the greater the reaction to the most recent demand.Answer-101-1 or 15 pointsQuestion 19__________ is absolute error as a percentage of demand.AnswerCumulative errorMADMAPDAverage error5 pointsQuestion 20__________ is a measure of the strength of the relationship between independent and dependent variables.AnswerCorrelationLinear regressionCoefficient of determinationRegression5 pointsQuestion 21__________ is a category of statistical techniques that uses historical data to predict future behavior.AnswerQualitative methodsRegressionTime seriesQuantitative methods5 pointsQuestion 22__________ methods are the most common type of forecasting method for the long-term strategic planning process.AnswerRegressionQualitativeTime seriesall of the above5 pointsQuestion 23__________ is the difference between the forecast and actual demand.AnswerForecast mistakeForecast errorMADForecast accuracy5 pointsQuestion 24Consider the following graph of sales.
Which of the following characteristics is exhibited by the data?AnswerTrend onlyTrend plus seasonalSeasonal onlyNone of the above5 pointsQuestion 25The drying rate in an industrial process is dependent on many factors and varies according to the following distribution. Compute the mean drying time. Use two places after the decimal.Answer5 pointsQuestion 26An automotive center keeps tracks of customer complaints received each week. The probability distribution for complaints can be represented as a table or a graph, both shown below. The random variable xi represents the number of complaints, and p(xi) is the probability of receiving xi complaints.xi 0 1 2 3 4 5 6p(xi) 10 .15 .18 .20 .20 .10 .07What is the average number of complaints received per week? Round your answer to two places after the decimal.Answer5 pointsQuestion 27A loaf of bread is normally distributed with a mean of 22 oz and a standard deviation of 0.5 oz. What is the probability that a loaf is larger than 21 oz? Round your answer to four places after the decimal.Answer5 pointsQuestion 28A fair die is rolled 8 times. What is the probability that an even number (2,4, 6) will occur between 2 and 4 times? Round your answer to four places after the decimal.Answer5 pointsQuestion 29Consider the following decision tree.
What is the expected value at node 4? Round your answer to the nearest whole number. Do not include the dollar sign "$" in your answer.Answer5 pointsQuestion 30The local operations manager for the IRS must decide whether to hire 1, 2, or 3 temporary workers. He estimates that net revenues will vary with how well taxpayers comply with the new tax code.
If he thinks the chances of low, medium, and high compliance are 20%, 30%, and 50% respectively, what is the expected value of perfect information? Round your answer to the nearest dollar.Answer5 pointsQuestion 31Consider the following distribution and random numbers:
If a simulation begins with the first random number, what would the first simulation value would be __________.Answer5 pointsQuestion 32The following data summarizes the historical demand for a product Month Actual DemandMarch 20April 25May 40June 35July 30August 45
If the forecasted demand for June, July and August is 32, 38 and 42, respectively, what is MAPD? Write your answer in decimal form and not in percentages. For example, 15% should be written as 0.15. Use three significant digits after the decimal.Answer5 pointsQuestion 33Given the following data, compute the MAD for the forecast.
Year Demand Forecast2001 16 182002 20 192003 18 24Answer5 pointsQuestion 34Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame:
Compute a 3-period moving average for period 6. Use two places after the decimal.Answer5 pointsQuestion 35Daily highs in Sacramento for the past week (from least to most recent) were: 95, 102, 101, 96, 95, 90 and 92. Develop a forecast for today using a 2 day moving average.Answer5 pointsQuestion 36Robert wants to know if there is a relation between money spent on gambling and winnings.
What is the coefficient of determination? Use two significant places after the decimal.Answer5 pointsQuestion 37The following sales data are available for 2003-2008.
Determine a 4-year weighted moving average forecast for 2009, where weights are W1 = 0.1, W2 = 0.2, W3 = 0.2 and W4 = 0.5.Answer5 pointsQuestion 38Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame:
Compute a 3-period moving average for period 4. Use two places after the decimal.Answer5 pointsQuestion 39The following data summarizes the historical demand for a product.Month Actual DemandMarch 20April 25May 40June 35July 30August 45
Use exponential smoothing with α = .2 and the smoothed forecast for July is 32. Determine the smoothed forecast for August.Answer5 pointsQuestion 40This is the data from the last 4 weeks:
Use the equation of the regression line to forecast the increased sales for when the number of ads is 10.Answer
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