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Scott, MIT Graduate
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Experience:  MIT Graduate (Math, Programming, Science, and Music)
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Deterministic techniques assume no uncertainty exists in parameters

Customer Question

Deterministic techniques assume that no uncertainty exists in model parameters.
AnswerTrue
False
5 points

Question 2
A joint probability is the probability that two or more events that are mutually exclusive can occur simultaneously.
AnswerTrue
False
5 points

Question 3
An inspector correctly identifies defective products 90% of the time. For the next 10 products, the probability that he makes fewer than 2 incorrect inspections is 0.736.AnswerTrue
False
5 points

Question 4
A decision tree is a diagram consisting of circles decision nodes, square probability nodes, and branches.AnswerTrue
False
5 points

Question 5
Excel can only be used to simulate systems that can be represented by continuous random variables.AnswerTrue
False
5 points

Question 6
Simulation results will always equal analytical results if 30 trials of the simulation have been conducted.AnswerTrue
False
5 points

Question 7
The Delphi develops a consensus forecast about what will occur in the future.AnswerTrue
False
5 points

Question 8
Qualitative methods are the least common type of forecasting method for the long-term strategic planning process.AnswerTrue
False
5 points

Question 9
Assume that it takes a college student an average of 5 minutes to find a parking spot in the main parking lot. Assume also that this time is normally distributed with a standard deviation of 2 minutes. What time is exceeded by approximately 75% of the college students when trying to find a parking spot in the main parking lot?Answer
3.5 minutes
5.75 minutes
6.36 minutes
9.2 minutes
5 points

Question 10
In Bayesian analysis, additional information is used to alter the __________ probability of the occurrence of an event.Answer
marginal
conditional
binomial
revised
5 points

Question 11
The __________ is the expected value of the regret for each decision.Answer
expected value
expected opportunity loss
expected value of perfect information
none of the above
5 points

Question 12
Pseudorandom numbers exhibit __________ in order to be considered truly random.Answer
a limited number of possible outcomes
a uniform distribution
a detectable pattern
a detectable run of certain numbers
5 points

Question 13
Random numbers generated by a __________ process instead of a __________ process are pseudorandom numbers.Answer
physical / physical
physical / mathematical
mathematical / physical
mathematical / mathematical
5 points

Question 14
A seed value is a(n)Answer
steady state solution of a simulation experiment
number used to start a stream of random numbers
first run of a simulation model
analytic solution of a simulation experiment
5 points

Question 15
Consider the following frequency of demand:

If the simulation begins with 0.8102, the simulated value for demand would beAnswer
1
2
3
4
5 points

Question 16
Consider the following graph of sales.

Which of the following characteristics is exhibited by the data?Answer
Trend only
Trend plus seasonal
Cyclical only
None of the above
5 points

Question 17
Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame:
If the forecast for period 5 is equal to 275, use exponential smoothing with α = .40 to compute a forecast for period 7.Answer
273
277
267.8
286.2
5 points

Question 18
In exponential smoothing, the closer alpha is to __________, the greater the reaction to the most recent demand.Answer
-1
0
1
-1 or 1
5 points

Question 19
__________ is absolute error as a percentage of demand.Answer
Cumulative error
MAD
MAPD
Average error
5 points

Question 20
__________ is a measure of the strength of the relationship between independent and dependent variables.Answer
Correlation
Linear regression
Coefficient of determination
Regression
5 points

Question 21
__________ is a category of statistical techniques that uses historical data to predict future behavior.Answer
Qualitative methods
Regression
Time series
Quantitative methods
5 points

Question 22
__________ methods are the most common type of forecasting method for the long-term strategic planning process.Answer
Regression
Qualitative
Time series
all of the above
5 points

Question 23
__________ is the difference between the forecast and actual demand.Answer
Forecast mistake
Forecast error
MAD
Forecast accuracy
5 points

Question 24
Consider the following graph of sales.

Which of the following characteristics is exhibited by the data?Answer
Trend only
Trend plus seasonal
Seasonal only
None of the above
5 points

Question 25
The drying rate in an industrial process is dependent on many factors and varies according to the following distribution.
Compute the mean drying time. Use two places after the decimal.Answer
5 points

Question 26
An automotive center keeps tracks of customer complaints received each week. The probability distribution for complaints can be represented as a table or a graph, both shown below. The random variable xi represents the number of complaints, and p(xi) is the probability of receiving xi complaints.

xi 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
p(xi) 10 .15 .18 .20 .20 .10 .07

What is the average number of complaints received per week? Round your answer to two places after the decimal.Answer
5 points

Question 27
A loaf of bread is normally distributed with a mean of 22 oz and a standard deviation of 0.5 oz. What is the probability that a loaf is larger than 21 oz? Round your answer to four places after the decimal.Answer
5 points

Question 28
A fair die is rolled 8 times. What is the probability that an even number (2,4, 6) will occur between 2 and 4 times? Round your answer to four places after the decimal.Answer
5 points

Question 29
Consider the following decision tree.

What is the expected value at node 4? Round your answer to the nearest whole number. Do not include the dollar sign "$" in your answer.Answer
5 points

Question 30
The local operations manager for the IRS must decide whether to hire 1, 2, or 3 temporary workers. He estimates that net revenues will vary with how well taxpayers comply with the new tax code.

If he thinks the chances of low, medium, and high compliance are 20%, 30%, and 50% respectively, what is the expected value of perfect information? Round your answer to the nearest dollar.Answer
5 points

Question 31
Consider the following distribution and random numbers:

If a simulation begins with the first random number, what would the first simulation value would be __________.Answer
5 points

Question 32
The following data summarizes the historical demand for a product
Month Actual Demand
March 20
April 25
May 40
June 35
July 30
August 45

If the forecasted demand for June, July and August is 32, 38 and 42, respectively, what is MAPD? Write your answer in decimal form and not in percentages. For example, 15% should be written as 0.15. Use three significant digits after the decimal.Answer
5 points

Question 33
Given the following data, compute the MAD for the forecast.

Year Demand Forecast
2001 16 18
2002 20 19
2003 18 24
Answer
5 points

Question 34
Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame:

Compute a 3-period moving average for period 6. Use two places after the decimal.Answer
5 points

Question 35
Daily highs in Sacramento for the past week (from least to most recent) were: 95, 102, 101, 96, 95, 90 and 92. Develop a forecast for today using a 2 day moving average.Answer
5 points

Question 36
Robert wants to know if there is a relation between money spent on gambling and winnings.

What is the coefficient of determination? Use two significant places after the decimal.Answer
5 points

Question 37
The following sales data are available for 2003-2008.

Determine a 4-year weighted moving average forecast for 2009, where weights are W1 = 0.1, W2 = 0.2, W3 = 0.2 and W4 = 0.5.Answer
5 points

Question 38
Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame:

Compute a 3-period moving average for period 4. Use two places after the decimal.Answer
5 points

Question 39
The following data summarizes the historical demand for a product.
Month Actual Demand
March 20
April 25
May 40
June 35
July 30
August 45

Use exponential smoothing with α = .2 and the smoothed forecast for July is 32. Determine the smoothed forecast for August.Answer
5 points

Question 40
This is the data from the last 4 weeks:

Use the equation of the regression line to forecast the increased sales for when the number of ads is 10.Answer

Submitted: 3 years ago.
Category: Homework
Expert:  Kathy replied 3 years ago.
1 Answer True
2 Answer True
3 False
4 False
5 False
6 False
7 False
8 True
9 6.36 minutes
10 All of the above
11 expected value of perfect information
12 1
13 .71
14 a uniform distribution
15 mathematical / physical
16 Time series
17 Correlation
18 dependent, independent
21 286.2
22 MAPD
23 .01
24 FORECAST ERROR
19 & 20 are missing the data.

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MIT Graduate (Math, Programming, Science, and Music)