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# Customer Question Ask your own question now > Question 1 Deterministic

### Customer Question

Question 1

Deterministic techniques assume that no uncertainty exists in model parameters.

False
5 points
Question 2

An inspector correctly identifies defective products 90% of the time. For the next 10 products, the probability that he makes fewer than 2 incorrect inspections is 0.736.
False
5 points
Question 3

A continuous random variable may assume only integer values within a given interval.

False
5 points
Question 4

A decision tree is a diagram consisting of circles decision nodes, square probability nodes, and branches.
False
5 points
Question 5

Simulation results will always equal analytical results if 30 trials of the simulation have been conducted.
False
5 points
Question 6

Starting conditions have no impact on the validity of a simulation model.
False
5 points
Question 7

Data cannot exhibit both trend and cyclical patterns.

False
5 points
Question 8

The Delphi develops a consensus forecast about what will occur in the future.
False
5 points
Question 9

Assume that it takes a college student an average of 5 minutes to find a parking spot in the main parking lot. Assume also that this time is normally distributed with a standard deviation of 2 minutes. What time is exceeded by approximately 75% of the college students when trying to find a parking spot in the main parking lot?
3.5 minutes
5.75 minutes
6.36 minutes
9.2 minutes
5 points
Question 10

__________ is a measure of dispersion of random variable values about the expected value.
Standard deviation
Range
The z-score (the standard score)
All of the above
5 points
Question 11

The __________ is the maximum amount a decision maker would pay for additional information.
expected opportunity loss
expected value
expected value of perfect information
none of the above
5 points
Question 12

Consider the following frequency of demand:

If the simulation begins with 0.8102, the simulated value for demand would be
1
2
3
4
5 points
Question 13

Two hundred simulation runs were completed using the probability of a machine breakdown from the table below. The average number of breakdowns from the simulation trials was 1.93 with a standard deviation of 0.20.

No. of breakdowns per week
Probability
Cumulative probability
0
.10
.10
1
.25
.35
2
.36
.71
3
.22
.93
4
.07
1.00

What is the probability of 2 or fewer breakdowns?
.10
.25
.35
.71
5 points
Question 14

Pseudorandom numbers exhibit __________ in order to be considered truly random.
a limited number of possible outcomes
a uniform distribution
a detectable pattern
a detectable run of certain numbers

5 points
Question 15

Random numbers generated by a __________ process instead of a __________ process are pseudorandom numbers.
physical / physical
physical / mathematical
mathematical / physical
mathematical / mathematical
5 points
Question 16

__________ is a category of statistical techniques that uses historical data to predict future behavior.
Qualitative methods
Regression
Time series
Quantitative methods
5 points
Question 17

__________ is a measure of the strength of the relationship between independent and dependent variables.
Correlation
Linear regression
Coefficient of determination
Regression
5 points
Question 18

Coefficient of determination is the percentage of the variation in the __________ variable that results from the __________ variable.
dependent, dependent
independent, dependent
dependent, independent
independent, independent
5 points
Question 19

Consider the following graph of sales.

Which of the following characteristics is exhibited by the data?
Trend only
Trend plus seasonal
Cyclical only
None of the above
5 points
Question 20

Consider the following graph of sales.

Which of the following characteristics is exhibited by the data?
Trend only
Trend plus seasonal
Seasonal only
None of the above
5 points
Question 21

Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame:

If the forecast for period 5 is equal to 275, use exponential smoothing with α = .40 to compute a forecast for period 7.
273
277
267.8
286.2
5 points
Question 22

__________ is absolute error as a percentage of demand.
Cumulative error
MAPD
Average error
5 points
Question 23

Which of the following possible values of alpha would cause exponential smoothing to respond the most slowly to sudden changes in forecast errors?
.01
.10
.50
.90
5 points
Question 24

__________ is the difference between the forecast and actual demand.
Forecast mistake
For

Submitted: 3 years ago.
Category: Homework
Expert:  Kathy replied 3 years ago.
3 False
4 False
5 False
6 False
7 False
8 True
9 6.36 minutes
10 All of the above
11 expected value of perfect information
12 1
13 .71
14 a uniform distribution
15 mathematical / physical
16 Time series
17 Correlation
18 dependent, independent
21 286.2
22 MAPD
23 .01
24 FORECAST ERROR

19 & 20 are missing the data.

Customer: replied 3 years ago.
Deterministic techniques assume that no uncertainty exists in model parameters.
False

5 points

### Question 2

1. A joint probability is the probability that two or more events that are mutually exclusive can occur simultaneously.
False

5 points

### Question 3

1. An inspector correctly identifies defective products 90% of the time. For the next 10 products, the probability that he makes fewer than 2 incorrect inspections is 0.736.AnswerTrue
False

5 points

### Question 4

1. A decision tree is a diagram consisting of circles decision nodes, square probability nodes, and branches.AnswerTrue
False

5 points

### Question 5

1. Excel can only be used to simulate systems that can be represented by continuous random variables.AnswerTrue
False

5 points

### Question 6

1. Simulation results will always equal analytical results if 30 trials of the simulation have been conducted.AnswerTrue
False

5 points

### Question 7

1. The Delphi develops a consensus forecast about what will occur in the future.AnswerTrue
False

5 points

### Question 8

1. Qualitative methods are the least common type of forecasting method for the long-term strategic planning process.AnswerTrue
False

5 points

### Question 9

1. Assume that it takes a college student an average of 5 minutes to find a parking spot in the main parking lot. Assume also that this time is normally distributed with a standard deviation of 2 minutes. What time is exceeded by approximately 75% of the college students when trying to find a parking spot in the main parking lot?Answer
 3.5 minutes 5.75 minutes 6.36 minutes 9.2 minutes

5 points

### Question 10

1. In Bayesian analysis, additional information is used to alter the __________ probability of the occurrence of an event.Answer
 marginal conditional binomial revised

5 points

### Question 11

1. The __________ is the expected value of the regret for each decision.Answer
 expected value expected opportunity loss expected value of perfect information none of the above

5 points

### Question 12

1. Pseudorandom numbers exhibit __________ in order to be considered truly random.Answer
 a limited number of possible outcomes a uniform distribution a detectable pattern a detectable run of certain numbers

5 points

### Question 13

1. Random numbers generated by a __________ process instead of a __________ process are pseudorandom numbers.Answer
 physical / physical physical / mathematical mathematical / physical mathematical / mathematical

5 points

### Question 14

1. A seed value is a(n)Answer
 steady state solution of a simulation experiment number used to start a stream of random numbers first run of a simulation model analytic solution of a simulation experiment

5 points

### Question 15

1. Consider the following frequency of demand:

If the simulation begins with 0.8102, the simulated value for demand would beAnswer
 1 2 3 4

5 points

### Question 16

1. Consider the following graph of sales.

Which of the following characteristics is exhibited by the data?Answer
 Trend only Trend plus seasonal Cyclical only None of the above

5 points

### Question 17

1. Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame:

If the forecast for period 5 is equal to 275, use exponential smoothing with α = .40 to compute a forecast for period 7.Answer
 273 277 267.8 286.2

5 points

### Question 18

1. In exponential smoothing, the closer alpha is to __________, the greater the reaction to the most recent demand.Answer
 -1 0 1 -1 or 1

5 points

### Question 19

1. __________ is absolute error as a percentage of demand.Answer
 Cumulative error MAD MAPD Average error

5 points

### Question 20

1. __________ is a measure of the strength of the relationship between independent and dependent variables.Answer
 Correlation Linear regression Coefficient of determination Regression

5 points

### Question 21

1. __________ is a category of statistical techniques that uses historical data to predict future behavior.Answer
 Qualitative methods Regression Time series Quantitative methods

5 points

### Question 22

1. __________ methods are the most common type of forecasting method for the long-term strategic planning process.Answer
 Regression Qualitative Time series all of the above

5 points

### Question 23

1. __________ is the difference between the forecast and actual demand.Answer
 Forecast mistake Forecast error MAD Forecast accuracy

5 points

### Question 24

1. Consider the following graph of sales.

Which of the following characteristics is exhibited by the data?Answer
 Trend only Trend plus seasonal Seasonal only None of the above

5 points

### Question 25

1. The drying rate in an industrial process is dependent on many factors and varies according to the following distribution.

Compute the mean drying time. Use two places after the decimal.Answer

5 points

### Question 26

1. An automotive center keeps tracks of customer complaints received each week. The probability distribution for complaints can be represented as a table or a graph, both shown below. The random variable xi represents the number of complaints, and p(xi) is the probability of receiving xi complaints.
 xi 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 p(xi) 0.1 0.15 0.18 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.07

5 points

### Question 27

1. A loaf of bread is normally distributed with a mean of 22 oz and a standard deviation of 0.5 oz. What is the probability that a loaf is larger than 21 oz? Round your answer to four places after the decimal.Answer

5 points

### Question 28

1. A fair die is rolled 8 times. What is the probability that an even number (2,4, 6) will occur between 2 and 4 times? Round your answer to four places after the decimal.Answer

5 points

### Question 29

1. Consider the following decision tree.

5 points

### Question 30

1. The local operations manager for the IRS must decide whether to hire 1, 2, or 3 temporary workers. He estimates that net revenues will vary with how well taxpayers comply with the new tax code.

If he thinks the chances of low, medium, and high compliance are 20%, 30%, and 50% respectively, what is the expected value of perfect information? Round your answer to the nearest dollar.Answer

5 points

### Question 31

1. Consider the following distribution and random numbers:

If a simulation begins with the first random number, what would the first simulation value would be __________.Answer

5 points

### Question 32

1. The following data summarizes the historical demand for a product
 Month Actual Demand March 20 April 25 May 40 June 35 July 30 August 45

If the forecasted demand for June, July and August is 32, 38 and 42, respectively, what is MAPD? Write your answer in decimal form and not in percentages. For example, 15% should be written as 0.15. Use three significant digits after the decimal.Answer

5 points

### Question 33

1. Given the following data, compute the MAD for the forecast.

Year Demand Forecast
 2001 16 18 2002 20 19 2003 18 24

5 points

### Question 34

1. Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame:

Compute a 3-period moving average for period 6. Use two places after the decimal.Answer

5 points

### Question 35

1. Daily highs in Sacramento for the past week (from least to most recent) were: 95, 102, 101, 96, 95, 90 and 92. Develop a forecast for today using a 2 day moving average.Answer

5 points

### Question 36

1. Robert wants to know if there is a relation between money spent on gambling and winnings.

What is the coefficient of determination? Use two significant places after the decimal.Answer

5 points

### Question 37

1. The following sales data are available for 2003-2008.

Determine a 4-year weighted moving average forecast for 2009, where weights are W1 = 0.1, W2 = 0.2, W3 = 0.2 and W4 = 0.5.Answer

5 points

### Question 38

1. Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame:

Compute a 3-period moving average for period 4. Use two places after the decimal.Answer

5 points

### Question 39

1. The following data summarizes the historical demand for a product.
 Month Actual Demand March 20 April 25 May 40 June 35 July 30 August 45

Use exponential smoothing with α = .2 and the smoothed forecast for July is 32. Determine the smoothed forecast for August.Answer

5 points

### Question 40

1. This is the data from the last 4 weeks:

Use the equation of the regression line to forecast the increased sales for when the number of ads is 10.Answer
Expert:  Kathy replied 3 years ago.
I agree to answer your questions considering that there were 24 questions, this is 40 questions. I am opting out to allow another expert to assist you.
Customer: replied 3 years ago.

I only need questions 24-40 answered.

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I will tell you that...the things you have to go through to be an Expert are quite rigorous.

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