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1. Simulation results will always equal analytical results if 30 trials of the simulation have been conducted.
T or F
2. Data cannot exhibit both trend and cyclical patterns.
T or F
3. ________is a measure of dispersion of random variable values about the expected value.
4. Assume that it takes a college student an average of 5 minutes to find a parking spot in the main parking lot. Assume also that this time is normally distributed with a standard deviation of 2 minutes. What time is exceeded by approximately 75% of the college students when trying to find a parking spot in the main parking lot?
5. The __________ is the expected value of the regret for each decision.
In the Monte Carlo process, values for a random variable are generated by __________ a probability distribution
6. Pseudorandom numbers exhibit __________ in order to be considered truly random.
7. Consider the following demand and forecast.
Period Demand Forecast
1 7 10
2 12 15
3 18 20
4 22
If MAD = 2, what is the forecast for period 4?
8. The following data summarizes the historical demand for a product
Month Actual Demand
March 20
April 25
May 40
June 35
July 30
August 45
9. If the forecasted demand for June, July and August is 32, 38 and 42, respectively, what is MAPD? Write your answer in decimal form and not in percentages. For example, 15% should be written as 0.15. Use three significant digits after the decimal.
10. The following sales data are available for 20032008 :
Year Sales Forecast
2003 7 9
2004 12 10
2005 14 15
2006 20 22
2007 16 18
2008 25 21
11. Calculate the absolute value of the average error. Use three significant digits after the decimal.
12. Given the following data, compute the MAD for the forecast.
Year Demand Forecast
2001 16 18
2002 20 19
2003 18 24
13. Consider the following annual sales data for 20012008.
Year Sales
2001 2
2002 4
2003 10
2004 8
2005 14
2006 18
2007 17
2008 20
14. Calculate the correlation coefficient . Use four significant digits after the decimal.
15. The following data summarizes the historical demand for a product.
Month Actual Demand
March 20
April 25
May 40
June 35
July 30
August 45
Use exponential smoothing with α = .2 and the smoothed forecast for July is 32. Determine the smoothed forecast for August
16. Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6period time frame:
Compute a 3period moving average for period 4. Use two places after the decimal.
17. This is the data from the last 4 weeks:
Use the equation of the regression line to forecast the increased sales for when the number of ads is 10.
18. Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6period time frame:
Compute a 3period moving average for period 6. Use two places after the decimal.
19. Given the following random number ranges and the following random number sequence: 62, 13, 25, 40, 86, 93, determine the average demand for the following distribution of demand.
Demand Random
Number Ranges
5 0014
6 1544
7 4569
8 7084
9 8599
20. Consider the following decision tree.
What is the expected value at node 4? Round your answer to the nearest whole number. Do not include the dollar sign “$” in your answer.
21. The local operations manager for the IRS must decide whether to hire 1, 2, or 3 temporary workers. He estimates that net revenues will vary with how well taxpayers comply with the new tax code.
If he is conservative, how many new workers will he hire?
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