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# Question 1 Deterministic techniques assume that no uncertainty

### Resolved Question:

Question 1

Deterministic techniques assume that no uncertainty exists in model parameters.

False
5 points
Question 2

An inspector correctly identifies defective products 90% of the time. For the next 10 products, the probability that he makes fewer than 2 incorrect inspections is 0.736.
False
5 points
Question 3

A continuous random variable may assume only integer values within a given interval.

False
5 points
Question 4

A decision tree is a diagram consisting of circles decision nodes, square probability nodes, and branches.
False
5 points
Question 5

Simulation results will always equal analytical results if 30 trials of the simulation have been conducted.
False
5 points
Question 6

Starting conditions have no impact on the validity of a simulation model.
False
5 points
Question 7

Data cannot exhibit both trend and cyclical patterns.

False
5 points
Question 8

The Delphi develops a consensus forecast about what will occur in the future.
False
5 points
Question 9

Assume that it takes a college student an average of 5 minutes to find a parking spot in the main parking lot. Assume also that this time is normally distributed with a standard deviation of 2 minutes. What time is exceeded by approximately 75% of the college students when trying to find a parking spot in the main parking lot?
3.5 minutes
5.75 minutes
6.36 minutes
9.2 minutes
5 points
Question 10

__________ is a measure of dispersion of random variable values about the expected value.
Standard deviation
Range
The z-score (the standard score)
All of the above
5 points
Question 11

The __________ is the maximum amount a decision maker would pay for additional information.
expected opportunity loss
expected value
expected value of perfect information
none of the above
5 points
Question 12

Consider the following frequency of demand:

If the simulation begins with 0.8102, the simulated value for demand would be
1
2
3
4
5 points
Question 13

Two hundred simulation runs were completed using the probability of a machine breakdown from the table below. The average number of breakdowns from the simulation trials was 1.93 with a standard deviation of 0.20.

No. of breakdowns per week
Probability
Cumulative probability
0
.10
.10
1
.25
.35
2
.36
.71
3
.22
.93
4
.07
1.00

What is the probability of 2 or fewer breakdowns?
.10
.25
.35
.71
5 points
Question 14

Pseudorandom numbers exhibit __________ in order to be considered truly random.
a limited number of possible outcomes
a uniform distribution
a detectable pattern
a detectable run of certain numbers

5 points
Question 15

Random numbers generated by a __________ process instead of a __________ process are pseudorandom numbers.
physical / physical
physical / mathematical
mathematical / physical
mathematical / mathematical
5 points
Question 16

__________ is a category of statistical techniques that uses historical data to predict future behavior.
Qualitative methods
Regression
Time series
Quantitative methods
5 points
Question 17

__________ is a measure of the strength of the relationship between independent and dependent variables.
Correlation
Linear regression
Coefficient of determination
Regression
5 points
Question 18

Coefficient of determination is the percentage of the variation in the __________ variable that results from the __________ variable.
dependent, dependent
independent, dependent
dependent, independent
independent, independent
5 points
Question 19

Consider the following graph of sales.

Which of the following characteristics is exhibited by the data?
Trend only
Trend plus seasonal
Cyclical only
None of the above
5 points
Question 20

Consider the following graph of sales.

Which of the following characteristics is exhibited by the data?
Trend only
Trend plus seasonal
Seasonal only
None of the above
5 points
Question 21

Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame:

If the forecast for period 5 is equal to 275, use exponential smoothing with α = .40 to compute a forecast for period 7.
273
277
267.8
286.2
5 points
Question 22

__________ is absolute error as a percentage of demand.
Cumulative error
MAPD
Average error
5 points
Question 23

Which of the following possible values of alpha would cause exponential smoothing to respond the most slowly to sudden changes in forecast errors?
.01
.10
.50
.90
5 points
Question 24

__________ is the difference between the forecast and actual demand.
Forecast mistake
For
Submitted: 2 years ago.
Category: Homework
Expert:  Dr. Amit replied 2 years ago.

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Category: Homework
Satisfied Customers: 1041
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Customer: replied 2 years ago.
Hello. Your answers only included questions 1-24. Here are the rest of the questions. Please answer these as well so that I can gladly click except. Thank you very much.

Question 25

A loaf of bread is normally distributed with a mean of 22 oz and a standard deviation of 0.5 oz. What is the probability that a loaf is larger than 21 oz? Round your answer to four places after the decimal.
5 points
Question 26

A life insurance company wants to estimate their annual payouts. Assume that the probability distribution of the lifetimes of the participants is approximately a normal distribution with a mean of 68 years and a standard deviation of 4 years. What proportion of the plan recipients would receive payments beyond age 75? Round your answer to four places after the decimal.
5 points
Question 27

The drying rate in an industrial process is dependent on many factors and varies according to the following distribution.

Compute the mean drying time. Use two places after the decimal.
5 points
Question 28

An automotive center keeps tracks of customer complaints received each week. The probability distribution for complaints can be represented as a table or a graph, both shown below. The random variable xi represents the number of complaints, and p(xi) is the probability of receiving xi complaints.

xi
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
p(xi)
.10
.15
.18
.20
.20
.10
.07

What is the average number of complaints received per week? Round your answer to two places after the decimal.
5 points
Question 29

An investor is considering 4 different opportunities, A, B, C, or D. The payoff for each opportunity will depend on the economic conditions, represented in the payoff table below.

Economic Condition
Poor Average Good Excellent
Investment (S1) (S2) (S3) (S4)
A 50 75 20 30
B 80 15 40 50
C -100 300 -50 10
D 25 25 25 25

If the probabilities of each economic condition are 0.5, 0.1, 0.35, and 0.05 respectively, what is the highest expected payoff?
5 points
Question 30

The local operations manager for the IRS must decide whether to hire 1, 2, or 3 temporary workers. He estimates that net revenues will vary with how well taxpayers comply with the new tax code.

If he is conservative, how many new workers will he hire?
5 points
Question 31

Given the following random number ranges and the following random number sequence: 62, 13, 25, 40, 86, 93, determine the average demand for the following distribution of demand.

Demand
Random
Number Ranges
5
00-14
6
15-44
7
45-69
8
70-84
9
85-99
5 points
Question 32

Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame:

Compute a 3-period moving average for period 4. Use two places after the decimal.
5 points
Question 33

The following data summarizes the historical demand for a product

Month
Actual Demand
March
20
April
25
May
40
June
35
July
30
August
45

If the forecasted demand for June, July and August is 32, 38 and 42, respectively, what is MAPD? Write your answer in decimal form and not in percentages. For example, 15% should be written as 0.15. Use three significant digits after the decimal.
5 points
Question 34

Consider the following annual sales data for 2001-2008.

Year
Sales
2001
2
2002
4
2003
10
2004
8
2005
14
2006
18
2007
17
2008
20

Calculate the correlation coefficient . Use four significant digits after the decimal.
5 points
Question 35

This is the data from the last 4 weeks:

Use the equation of the regression line to forecast the increased sales for when the number of ads is 10.
5 points
Question 36

The following sales data are available for 2003-2008.

Determine a 4-year weighted moving average forecast for 2009, where weights are W1 = 0.1, W2 = 0.2, W3 = 0.2 and W4 = 0.5.
5 points
Question 37

The following sales data are available for 2003-2008 :

Year
Sales
Forecast
2003
7
9
2004
12
10
2005
14
15
2006
20
22
2007
16
18
2008
25
21

Calculate the absolute value of the average error. Use three significant digits after the decimal.

5 points
Question 38

Given the following data, compute the MAD for the forecast.

Year Demand Forecast
2001
16
18
2002
20
19
2003
18
24
5 points
Question 39

Robert wants to know if there is a relation between money spent on gambling and winnings.

What is the coefficient of determination? Use two significant places after the decimal.
5 points
Question 40

Daily highs in Sacramento for the past week (from least to most recent) were: 95, 102, 101, 96, 95, 90 and 92. Develop a forecast for today using a weighted moving average, with weights of .6, .3 and .1, where the highest weights are applied to the most recent data.
5 points
Expert:  Dr. Amit replied 2 years ago.
Hello
As there were only 24 sub-questions in the question posted, i answered all of those.
2 of them had no graphs..so if you can post the graphs, i can help with those too.

I hope that helped.
- Kindly Click the green "ACCEPT" button on that answer, so that i get paid by the website, for my time and resources used answering you.
Customer: replied 2 years ago.
Hello and thank you for responding. I can try to figure the 2 questions with the graphs myself however I posted all 40 questions in my question area. I do not know if it showed up or not but I would like to pay for the full 40 questions. Questions 25 through 40 are harder for me to answer so I am not to worried about the two questions with the graphs. Please try and answer questions 25-40 so that I may click the accept button. Thank you once again.
Expert:  Dr. Amit replied 2 years ago.
Hello
As i informed before, i have already answered the questions that were listed first.
All people...be it Question-asker(you) and expert(me in this case) see the same question page and can see what has got posted or not. Both see the same detail about questions and answers.

So kindly "ACCEPT" so that i get paid by the website, for my time and resources used answering you.

Regarding other new questions, having a quick look at them, i think i can help you with those too but you would need to open a separate question thread for the same.
Hope this helps
Regards
Customer: replied 2 years ago.
How can I make sure that you are the expert answering my questions if I post a new thread? I would like for you to answer my questions please. I felt that your answers to my first questions were correct.
Expert:  Dr. Amit replied 2 years ago.
Thanks for requesting me again.
In future, if you want to address questions to me specifically, just add "For Dr.Amit" before writing your question

Hope that helped.
Customer: replied 2 years ago.
Ok Dr. Amit. I will do that. I must inform you that there is a word limit to the area that one posts their question which is why my 40 questions were cut-off the first time. This time, question #40 is cut-off so can you please refer to my previous posts to look at the full questions? I will now click accept for questions 1-24 and I will submit my second post for you. Thank you.
Customer: replied 2 years ago.

### Question 25

1. A loaf of bread is normally distributed with a mean of 22 oz and a standard deviation of 0.5 oz. What is the probability that a loaf is larger than 21 oz? Round your answer to four places after the decimal.

### Question 26

1. A life insurance company wants to estimate their annual payouts. Assume that the probability distribution of the lifetimes of the participants is approximately a normal distribution with a mean of 68 years and a standard deviation of 4 years. What proportion of the plan recipients would receive payments beyond age 75? Round your answer to four places after the decimal.

### Question 27

1. The drying rate in an industrial process is dependent on many factors and varies according to the following distribution.

Compute the mean drying time. Use two places after the decimal.

### Question 28

1. An automotive center keeps tracks of customer complaints received each week. The probability distribution for complaints can be represented as a table or a graph, both shown below. The random variable xi represents the number of complaints, and p(xi) is the probability of receiving xi complaints.
 xi 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 p(xi) 0.1 0.15 0.18 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.07

What is the average number of complaints received per week? Round your answer to two places after the decimal.

### Question 29

1. An investor is considering 4 different opportunities, A, B, C, or D. The payoff for each opportunity will depend on the economic conditions, represented in the payoff table below.

Economic Condition
Poor Average Good Excellent
Investment (S1) (S2) (S3) (S4)
A 50 75 20 30
B 80 15 40 50
C -100 300 -50 10
D 25 25 25 25

If the probabilities of each economic condition are 0.5, 0.1, 0.35, and 0.05 respectively, what is the highest expected payoff?

### Question 30

1. The local operations manager for the IRS must decide whether to hire 1, 2, or 3 temporary workers. He estimates that net revenues will vary with how well taxpayers comply with the new tax code.

If he is conservative, how many new workers will he hire?

### Question 31

1. Given the following random number ranges and the following random number sequence: 62, 13, 25, 40, 86, 93, determine the average demand for the following distribution of demand.
 Demand RandomNumber Ranges 5 00-14 6 15-44 7 45-69 8 70-84 9 85-99

### Question 32

1. Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame:

Compute a 3-period moving average for period 4. Use two places after the decimal.

### Question 33

1. The following data summarizes the historical demand for a product
 Month Actual Demand March 20 April 25 May 40 June 35 July 30 August 45

If the forecasted demand for June, July and August is 32, 38 and 42, respectively, what is MAPD? Write your answer in decimal form and not in percentages. For example, 15% should be written as 0.15. Use three significant digits after the decimal.

### Question 34

1. Consider the following annual sales data for 2001-2008.
 Year Sales 2001 2 2002 4 2003 10 2004 8 2005 14 2006 18 2007 17 2008 20

Calculate the correlation coefficient . Use four significant digits after the decimal.

### Question 35

1. This is the data from the last 4 weeks:

Use the equation of the regression line to forecast the increased sales for when the number of ads is 10.

### Question 36

1. The following sales data are available for 2003-2008.

Determine a 4-year weighted moving average forecast for 2009, where weights are W1 = 0.1, W2 = 0.2, W3 = 0.2 and W4 = 0.5.

### Question 37

1. The following sales data are available for 2003-2008 :
 Year Sales Forecast 2003 7 9 2004 12 10 2005 14 15 2006 20 22 2007 16 18 2008 25 21

Calculate the absolute value of the average error. Use three significant digits after the decimal.

### Question 38

1. Given the following data, compute the MAD for the forecast.

Year Demand Forecast
 2001 16 18 2002 20 19 2003 18 24

### Question 39

1. Robert wants to know if there is a relation between money spent on gambling and winnings.

What is the coefficient of determination? Use two significant places after the decimal.

### Question 40

1. Daily highs in Sacramento for the past week (from least to most recent) were: 95, 102, 101, 96, 95, 90 and 92. Develop a forecast for today using a weighted moving average, with weights of .6, .3 and .1, where the highest weights are applied to the most recent data.
(to be typed. Not multiple choice)

Expert:  Dr. Amit replied 2 years ago.
Hi i got them.

I am working on them and will reply you in the new question thread, you just opened.
You need not reply here now.

Thanks

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