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Deterministic techniques assume that no uncertainty exists

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Question 1

Deterministic techniques assume that no uncertainty exists in model parameters.

True or False

5 points

Question 2

An inspector correctly identifies defective products 90% of the time. For the next 10 products, the probability that he makes fewer than 2 incorrect inspections is 0.736. True or False

5 points

Question 3

A continuous random variable may assume only integer values within a given interval.

True or False

5 points

Question 4

A decision tree is a diagram consisting of circles decision nodes, square probability nodes, and branches. True or False

5 points

Question 5

Simulation results will always equal analytical results if 30 trials of the simulation have been conducted. True or False

5 points

Question 6

Starting conditions have no impact on the validity of a simulation model. True or False

5 points

Question 7

Data cannot exhibit both trend and cyclical patterns.

True or False

5 points

Question 8

The Delphi develops a consensus forecast about what will occur in the future. True or False

5 points

Question 9

Assume that it takes a college student an average of 5 minutes to find a parking spot in the main parking lot. Assume also that this time is normally distributed with a standard deviation of 2 minutes. What time is exceeded by approximately 75% of the college students when trying to find a parking spot in the main parking lot?

A. 3.5 minutes B. 5.75 minutes C. 6.36 minutes D. 9.2 minutes 5 points

Question 10

__________ is a measure of dispersion of random variable values about the expected value.

A. Standard deviation B. Range C. The z-score (the standard score) D. All of the above 5 points

Question 11

The __________ is the maximum amount a decision maker would pay for additional information.

A. Expected opportunity loss B. Expected value C. Expected value of perfect information D. None of the above 5 points

Question 12

Consider the following frequency of demand:

If the simulation begins with 0.8102, the simulated value for demand would be

A. 1 B. 2 C. 3 D. 4 5 points

Question 13

Two hundred simulation runs were completed using the probability of a machine breakdown from the table below. The average number of breakdowns from the simulation trials was 1.93 with a standard deviation of 0.20.

No. of breakdowns per week Probability Cumulative probability 0 .10 .10 1 .25 .35 2 .36 .71 3 .22 .93 4 .07 1.00

What is the probability of 2 or fewer breakdowns?

A. .10 B. .25 C. .35 D. .71 5 points

Question 14

Pseudorandom numbers exhibit __________ in order to be considered truly random.

A. A limited number of possible outcomes B. A uniform distribution C. A detectable pattern D. A detectable run of certain numbers

5 points

Question 15

Random numbers generated by a __________ process instead of a __________ process are pseudorandom numbers.

A. Physical / physical B. Physical / mathematical C. Mathematical / physical D. Mathematical / mathematical 5 points

Question 16

__________ is a category of statistical techniques that uses historical data to predict future behavior.

A. Qualitative methods B. Regression C. Time series D. Quantitative methods 5 points

Question 17

__________ is a measure of the strength of the relationship between independent and dependent variables.

A. Correlation B. Linear regression C. Coefficient of determination D. Regression 5 points

Question 18

Coefficient of determination is the percentage of the variation in the __________ variable that results from the __________ variable.

A. Dependent, dependent B. Independent, dependent C. Dependent, independent D. Independent, independent 5 points

Question 19

Consider the following graph of sales.

Which of the following characteristics is exhibited by the data?

A. Trend only B. Trend plus seasonal C. Cyclical only D. None of the above 5 points

Question 20

Consider the following graph of sales.

Which of the following characteristics is exhibited by the data?

A. Trend only B. Trend plus seasonal C. Seasonal only D. None of the above 5 points

Question 21

Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame:

If the forecast for period 5 is equal to 275, use exponential smoothing with α = .40 to compute a forecast for period 7.

A. 273 B. 277 C. 267.8 D. 286.2 5 points

Question 22

__________ is absolute error as a percentage of demand.

A. Cumulative error B. MAD C.MAPD D. Average error 5 points

Question 23

Which of the following possible values of alpha would cause exponential smoothing to respond the most slowly to sudden changes in forecast errors?

A. .01 B. .10 C. .50 D. .90 5 points

Question 24

__________ is the difference between the forecast and actual demand.

Hello. Your answers only included questions 1-24. Here are the rest of the questions. Thank you very much.

Question 25

A loaf of bread is normally distributed with a mean of 22 oz and a standard deviation of 0.5 oz. What is the probability that a loaf is larger than 21 oz? Round your answer to four places after the decimal.

5 points

Question 26

A life insurance company wants to estimate their annual payouts. Assume that the probability distribution of the lifetimes of the participants is approximately a normal distribution with a mean of 68 years and a standard deviation of 4 years. What proportion of the plan recipients would receive payments beyond age 75? Round your answer to four places after the decimal.

5 points

Question 27

The drying rate in an industrial process is dependent on many factors and varies according to the following distribution.

Compute the mean drying time. Use two places after the decimal.

5 points

Question 28

An automotive center keeps tracks of customer complaints received each week. The probability distribution for complaints can be represented as a table or a graph, both shown below. The random variable xi represents the number of complaints, and p(xi) is the probability of receiving xi complaints.

What is the average number of complaints received per week? Round your answer to two places after the decimal.

5 points

Question 29

An investor is considering 4 different opportunities, A, B, C, or D. The payoff for each opportunity will depend on the economic conditions, represented in the payoff table below.

Economic Condition Poor Average Good Excellent Investment (S1) (S2) (S3) (S4) A. 50 75 20 30 B. 80 15 40 50 C. -100 300 -50 10 D. 25 25 25 25

If the probabilities of each economic condition are 0.5, 0.1, 0.35, and 0.05 respectively, what is the highest expected payoff?

5 points

Question 30

The local operations manager for the IRS must decide whether to hire 1, 2, or 3 temporary workers. He estimates that net revenues will vary with how well taxpayers comply with the new tax code.

If he is conservative, how many new workers will he hire?

5 points

Question 31

Given the following random number ranges and the following random number sequence: 62, 13, 25, 40, 86, 93, determine the average demand for the following distribution of demand.

Demand Random Number Ranges 5 00-14 6 15-44 7 45-69 8 70-84 9 85-99 5 points

Question 32

Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame:

Compute a 3-period moving average for period 4. Use two places after the decimal.

5 points

Question 33

The following data summarizes the historical demand for a product

Month Actual Demand March 20 April 25 May 40 June 35 July 30 August 45

If the forecasted demand for June, July and August is 32, 38 and 42, respectively, what is MAPD? Write your answer in decimal form and not in percentages. For example, 15% should be written as 0.15. Use three significant digits after the decimal.

5 points

Question 34

Consider the following annual sales data for 2001-2008.

Robert wants to know if there is a relation between money spent on gambling and winnings.

What is the coefficient of determination? Use two significant places after the decimal.

5 points

Question 40

Daily highs in Sacramento for the past week (from least to most recent) were: 95, 102, 101, 96, 95, 90 and 92. Develop a forecast for today using a weighted moving average, with weights of .6, .3 and .1, where the highest weights are applied to the most recent data.

Hello As there were only 24 sub-questions in the question posted, I answered all of those. 2 of them had no graphs. So, if you can post the graphs, I can help with those too.

Hello and thank you for responding. I can try to figure the 2 questions with the graphs myself. However, I posted all 40 questions in my question area. Thank you once again.

Customer:replied 4 years ago.

Question 25

A loaf of bread is normally distributed with a mean of 22 oz and a standard deviation of 0.5 oz. What is the probability that a loaf is larger than 21 oz? Round your answer to four places after the decimal.

5 points

Question 26

A life insurance company wants to estimate their annual payouts. Assume that the probability distribution of the lifetimes of the participants is approximately a normal distribution with a mean of 68 years and a standard deviation of 4 years. What proportion of the plan recipients would receive payments beyond age 75? Round your answer to four places after the decimal.

5 points

Question 27

The drying rate in an industrial process is dependent on many factors and varies according to the following distribution.

Compute the mean drying time. Use two places after the decimal.

5 points

Question 28

An automotive center keeps tracks of customer complaints received each week. The probability distribution for complaints can be represented as a table or a graph, both shown below. The random variable xi represents the number of complaints, and p(xi) is the probability of receiving xi complaints.

xi

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

p(xi)

.10

.15

.18

.20

.20

.10

.07

What is the average number of complaints received per week? Round your answer to two places after the decimal.

5 points

Question 29

An investor is considering 4 different opportunities, A, B, C, or D. The payoff for each opportunity will depend on the economic conditions, represented in the payoff table below.

Economic Condition Poor Average Good Excellent Investment (S1) (S2) (S3) (S4) A. 50 75 20 30 B. 80 15 40 50 C. -100 300 -50 10 D. 25 25 25 25

If the probabilities of each economic condition are 0.5, 0.1, 0.35, and 0.05 respectively, what is the highest expected payoff?

5 points

Question 30

The local operations manager for the IRS must decide whether to hire 1, 2, or 3 temporary workers. He estimates that net revenues will vary with how well taxpayers comply with the new tax code.

If he is conservative, how many new workers will he hire?

5 points

Question 31

Given the following random number ranges and the following random number sequence: 62, 13, 25, 40, 86, 93, determine the average demand for the following distribution of demand.

Demand

Random

Number Ranges

5

00-14

6

15-44

7

45-69

8

70-84

9

85-99

5 points

Question 32

Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame:

Compute a 3-period moving average for period 4. Use two places after the decimal.

Customer:replied 4 years ago.

5 points

Question 33

The following data summarizes the historical demand for a product

Month

Actual Demand

March

20

April

25

May

40

June

35

July

30

August

45

If the forecasted demand for June, July and August is 32, 38 and 42, respectively, what is MAPD? Write your answer in decimal form and not in percentages. For example, 15% should be written as 0.15. Use three significant digits after the decimal.

5 points

Question 34

Consider the following annual sales data for 2001-2008.

Year

Sales

2001

2

2002

4

2003

10

2004

8

2005

14

2006

18

2007

17

2008

20

Calculate the correlation coefficient . Use four significant digits after the decimal.

5 points

Question 35

This is the data from the last 4 weeks:

Use the equation of the regression line to forecast the increased sales for when the number of ads is 10.

5 points

Question 36

The following sales data are available for 2003-2008.

Determine a 4-year weighted moving average forecast for 2009, where weights are W1 = 0.1, W2 = 0.2, W3 = 0.2 and W4 = 0.5.

5 points

Question 37

The following sales data are available for 2003-2008 :

Year

Sales

Forecast

2003

7

9

2004

12

10

2005

14

15

2006

20

22

2007

16

18

2008

25

21

Calculate the absolute value of the average error. Use three significant digits after the decimal.

5 points

Question 38

Given the following data, compute the MAD for the forecast.

Year Demand Forecast

2001

16

18

2002

20

19

2003

18

24

5 points

Question 39

Robert wants to know if there is a relation between money spent on gambling and winnings.

What is the coefficient of determination? Use two significant places after the decimal.

5 points

Question 40

Daily highs in Sacramento for the past week (from least to most recent) were: 95, 102, 101, 96, 95, 90 and 92. Develop a forecast for today using a weighted moving average, with weights of .6, .3 and .1, where the highest weights are applied to the most recent data.

(to be typed. Not multiple choice)

5 points

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