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quantitative methods
Customer Question
1)There are two more assignments in a class before its end, and if you get an A on at least one of them, you will get an A for the semester. Your subjective assessment of your performance is
Event Probability
A on paper and A on exam 0.25
A on paper only 0.10
A on exam only 0.30
A on neither 0.35
a. What is the probability of getting an A on the paper?
b. What is the probability of getting an A on the exam?
c. What is the probability of getting an A in the course?
d. Are the grades on the assignments independent?
2)The time it takes to travel from home to the office is normally distributed with ï = 25 minutes and ï³ = 5 minutes.
a. What is the probability the trip takes more than 20 minutes?
b. What is the probability the trip takes less than 15 minutes.
c. What is the probability the trip takes between 30 and 35 minutes?
d. What is the probability the trip takes more than 40 minutes?
3)A payoff table is given as
s1 s2 s3
d1 10 8 6
d2 14 15 2
d3 7 8 9
a. What decision should be made by the optimistic decision maker?
b. What decision should be made by the conservative decision maker?
c. What decision should be made under minimax regret?
d. If the probabilities of s1, s2, and s3 are 0.2, 0.4, and 0.4, respectively, then what decision should be made under expected value?
e. What is the EVPI?
4)The number of new contributors to a public radio station’s annual fund drive over the last ten years is
63, 58, 61, 72, 98, 103, 121, 147, 163, 198
Develop a trend equation for this information, and use it to predict next year’s number of new contributors.
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10 years ago.
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