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Rakhi Vasavada
Rakhi Vasavada, Financial and Legal Consultant
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Experience:  Graduated in law with Emphasis on Finance and have have been working in financial sector for over 12 Years
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My gh school class has exactly 200 members still alive.

Customer Question

My high school class has exactly 200 members still alive. For all practical purposes we are all 73 years old. What is the expected number of this group who will survive until our next reunion in 5 years?
Almost entirely white, mid-western people.
Submitted: 10 months ago.
Category: Finance
Expert:  Lane replied 10 months ago.

73 Year Old Life Expectancy

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Life Expectancy (Female): 14.2 years

Life Expectancy (Male): 12.1 years

# ***** Out of 100,000 born: 73,028

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And of course this is an average, the healthier will skew toward 20 years, and the unhealthy toward 10yrs.

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And likely stating the obvious here ...

Life expectancy, the average number of years a human is expected to live, varies due to many factors including current age, gender, race, and geographic location.

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The average life expectancy for a 73 year old is 13.1 years. The top three causes of death among people this age are cancer, heart disease, and chronic lower respiratory diseases which contribute to an average death probability of 0.02660%. Despite advanced age, eating healthy and proper exercise can contribute to living a significantly longer, more healthy life.

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If we look at the Social Security data the probably of a 73 year old dying within 1 year is 0.021467 (about 2%) ... Extrapolating that linearly (very generalized) this puts the likelyhood at 10% within 5 years. (Again a BIG average)

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Using that VERY oversimplified math this puts the deaths out of 200 at 20

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See this: https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html

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All of the real research in the area requires MUCH more input regarding health, smoker/non smoker, financial situation, family arrangement, and it goes on and on

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Here is some interesting work: http://www.ubble.co.uk/

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I used the ubble risk explorer you'll see on the site abov and when using age 70, and doing my best to answer something that would equate to average on all question the probability of dying withing 5 years came back a 5%n (so using this data, 10 out of 200)

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This article is actually about that work done in the UK (Ubble) : https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/to-your-health/wp/2015/06/04/scientists-can-calculate-your-risk-of-dying-in-five-years-using-13-easy-questions/

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But again, a healthy group, may put that at 2 to 3 out of 200.

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