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Lane
Lane , JD, CFP, MBA, CRPS
Category: Finance
Satisfied Customers: 9220
Experience:  Law Degree, specialization in Tax Law and Corporate Law, CFP and MBA, Providing Financial & Tax advice since 1986
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AAPL settlement price for monthly options going back at least

Customer Question

AAPL settlement price for monthly options going back at least 5 to 10 years. I'm looking for any kind of pattern. Do they land on "even numbers", do they tend to fall on Fridays? Impact of holidays and light trading, etc. The goal being to try APPL option selling strategy to get rich.
Submitted: 2 years ago.
Category: Finance
Expert:  R. Klein, EA replied 2 years ago.

R. Klein, EA :

Thanks for your finance question, LasVegas Brad.

R. Klein, EA :

Stocks and their related derivatives (i.e. options, etc.) walk a "random pattern".

R. Klein, EA :

I am fairly certain that anyone (or any machine) that could have seen a pattern would have already taken advantage of it by now.

R. Klein, EA :

However, if you just want to do your own supercomputer analysis, you can find the data at a website like this: http://www.historicaloptiondata.com/node?gclid=CPrwj8eH57oCFdJj7AodwhEAdw

R. Klein, EA :

When you look for "patterns" (where in fact there are none), you create internal psychological bias. I won't bore you with the lengthy discussion or scientific analysis, so you may either accept that premise or ignore it.

R. Klein, EA :

Regardless, just to prove my point, imagine you are tracking stock XYZ (it doesn't matter if it is a stock or option or anything). You discover a pattern such that XYZ always closes on Fridays DOWN from its Thursday close.

R. Klein, EA :

Pretty quickly you start trading by shorting the stock every Thursday and closing your position at the end of business on Friday.

R. Klein, EA :

Since "Wall Street supercomputers" are always trying to analyze data patters, too, they will also pick up on this pattern and start trading on it. Very quickly everybody starts shorting the stock on Thursday.

R. Klein, EA :

What happens? The market shifts on XYZ and some sharks seeing this NEW patter start playing AGAINST this pattern and now everyone who shorts on Thursday gets stuck when Friday's close is even lower.

R. Klein, EA :

It's a vicious cycle. You can never beat it in the long run by simply determining the closing price from day to day. The window is too big and swings take place within a day that end-of-day numbers don't tell you.

R. Klein, EA :

It IS a random walk.

R. Klein, EA :

Good luck in your trading!

Customer :

Hi R. Klein, I didn't appreciate the lecture. And your website wants $575 fee for the data. This website, even for this high fee, doesn't have closing option prices, quote:

Very often we get requests for open, high, low, close option prices. We understand why people ask for this, because they want to find the trading range for options.

R. Klein, EA :

I am not here to lecture you. And the website is not "my" website. I have zero affiliation with the website. It just happens to be one source of the data.

R. Klein, EA :

The information I provided is based on sound investment principles; it is not an opinion nor am I trying to sell you anything at all.

R. Klein, EA :

So, I am sorry if I have provided you more information than you wanted. Our site is not a source of investment data; we can only provide professional insight and answers to your questions.

R. Klein, EA :

There are many websites that offer historical trading prices and closing and opening prices; albeit for a fee. You obviously are smart enough to Google to get a list.

R. Klein, EA :

I don't have any specific sites that I have knowledge of that are free to the public. If you want to get rich, but want to not spend very much doing so, you always have the option of compiling your own data day by day going forward. That way you can capture exactly what you want and create any analysis you want without anybody imposing upon you.

R. Klein, EA :

Obviously, you are much smarter than me and I am certain that you will find the patterns you seek once you have all of the data to analyze. I just cannot provide the analysis here, since that is not the function of this site.

Customer :

Hi R. Klein, I dont know why I bother with this "just answer". I asked for 60 to 120 numbers: what price did AAPL close at on expirations for the last 5 to 10 years? Yes, I can get historical data, and plug it into excel. I thought whoever would take my question would "Just answer" that, but NO, I get ramblings about Random Walks.

R. Klein, EA :

OK. Sounds like you wanted something different than your question asked for, There's nothing in your question about "60 to 120 numbers what price did AAPL close at"

R. Klein, EA :

I will opt out.

Expert:  Lane replied 2 years ago.

Here's where you can find the historical data, sorted any way you want and downloadable, so you can analyze:

http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/aapl/option-chain

Lane