Thank you for your question.
I have learned from experience that when it comes to custody, anything can happen. In making custody determinations, the court by law has to consider the best interests of the child as measured by the following factors:
1) the wishes of the child's parent or parents as to his custody;
(2) the wishes of the child as to his custodian;
(3) the interaction and interrelationship of the child with his parent or parents, his siblings and any other person who may significantly affect the child's best interest;
(4) the child's adjustment to his home, school and community;
(5) the mental and physical health of all individuals involved;
(6) the physical violence or threat of physical violence by the child's potential custodian, whether directed against the child or directed against another person;
(7) the occurrence of ongoing or repeated abuse as defined in Section 103 of the Illinois Domestic Violence Act of 1986, whether directed against the child or directed against another person;
(8) the willingness and ability of each parent to facilitate and encourage a close and continuing relationship between the other parent and the child;
(9) whether one of the parents is a sex offender ; and
(10) the terms of a parent's military family-care plan that a parent must complete before deployment if a parent is a member of the United States Armed Forces who is being deployed.
( § 750 ILCS 5/602)
Based on the scenario you've described, it doesn't seem likely that the court would grant the mother custody, but there are always two sides to a story, and I cannot say how she would paint the picture regarding custody. I can tell you that a court will not grant custody to a parent who is incarcerated.
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