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The likelihood is that the record will be discovered. Or at least your candidate should assume that the record will be discovered and be fothcoming about it. In my experience convictions for relatively minor offenses can often be accomodated. What employers will not accomodate is the failure to disclose the record. A candidate who fails to disclose will almost always be disqualified for consideration if the record is uncovered during the vetting process. Also, employees who failed to disclosed have been separated from employment for the same reason.
Additionally, you may be aware that employers take a dim view of recruiting companies that send candidates for consideration, but have not performed their own due diligence prior to sending a recruit.
So, while it may turn out that the conviction does not appear on an initial background check, if it does come out and the candidate did not disclose the candidate will likely be subject to termination. At which point they may have two issue to disclose to future potential employers.
As an aside, I also use to work for the DoD in regard to personnel security background investigations. At that time we were always much more concerned with the candidate being forthcoming than we were concerned with relatively minor simple possession convictions. That was in the 1980s. I think that employers have become more tolerant of these issues when disclosed.
So while I can not say for certain that the record will come up, the best bet is to assume that it will.
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