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Very low. Probably 1 in 5000 to 1 in 10000. Not high enough to worry, but not zero. In situations like this, it is always better to get tested. At 5 months the test should be very reliable, and you will sleep better knowing you are negative. :-)
It's hard to say from the pictures alone but my guess would be molluscum contagiosum, a viral skin infection that spreads through direct contact and typically goes away on its own after many months. One or more may have become infected from picking at it.
These bumps have nothing to do with HIV. Aching in the legs is not a typical symptom either.
Most infected individuals have no symptoms at all initially, which is why testing is always recommended. There are even over-the-counter tests that are very good and not too expensive (e.g (oraquick).
No, neither of these are associated with HIV infection.
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It could be molluscum that has become secondarily infected, or it could be an unusual case of folliculitis, also an infection. Both can be treated with antibiotics, and both should improve within a couple weeks.
No, not HIV or HPV.