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It is not a great case for the prosecution, but yes, they certainly have a chance. You never know for sure what a jury is going to do.
There are things that are in your favor and things in the prosecution's favor:
(1) They can link you to the stolen goods.
(2) You are linked to the place they were stolen from because you worked there. Someone who worked there would obviously know what was worth stealing.
(3) In order to get your explanation out on how you got the items, you will likely have to take the stand and testify. That can be problematic if you can't deliver the guy bought them from. Also, the prosecutor will question you about not recognizing that these came from where you worked. Of course, that partially depends on how unique they are.
(4) Video. Some jurors may think it is you.
(1) Video. Other jurors may not believe it is you or just cannot tell and are not willing to convict without definitive evidence.
(2) The plumber alibi. Good stuff if he stays strong on the times, that you were there the whole time, and that he saw you when he left. Of course, that is diminished if the DA and/or detective can show the time was off on the video recording. The timing of their correction will not mean as much to the jury as it means to you because all these things happened before the trial
which is the first time the jury is hearing about it. What's more important is the strength or weakness of their evidence that the camera's time was off.
(3) Your wife. Good assuming she comes off as believable, but, as you know, her testimony is going to be questioned heavily because of her inherent bias.
BotXXXXX XXXXXne you never know what a jury is going to do. It is definitely weaker than most criminal
cases, but there are always risks in going to trial.