Please understand that any answer to this question would have to be hugely speculative. The allegations are from 23 years ago and, even then, many variables would be involved. However, my speculation is that a criminal prosecution would have been quite likely but he would not have ended up as a sex offender.
I worked as a prosecuting attorney for several years and have been a defense attorney for over a decade. Having worked many cases like this, I can state that prosecutors generally do not litigate these cases as vigorously as they otherwise might. To take this case more seriously, they would want more physical contact or an existing criminal history, especially one involving another sex offense.
Again, it's quite speculative, but I would suggest that a likely outcome would be a conviction for a non-sexual offense and a period of probation.
Please let me know if anything requires clarification.
I hope you found my answer helpful. If so, please click on the green ACCEPT for my answer. This is necessary for me to be paid for my work and so that I can get credit for assisting you. Even if you are a subscription member, you will need to click ACCEPT. Your question will not close, and you will still have the opportunity to follow-up if needed. Leaving a bonus and positive feedback is not required, but doing so is certainly appreciated! Thank you and good luck!
Also, several customers have asked how they may direct a question to me in particular. If you specifically want me to assist you in your legal matter, just put "FOR JOSEPH" in the subject line and I will gladly pick up the question as soon as I am on-line.