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Jason Carlamere
Jason Carlamere,
Category: Programming
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Experience:  Technical Director at PNC Financial Services
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How can i find the probability of a NBA player, if he is

Customer Question

how can i find the probability of a NBA player, if he is going to score X amount of points based on perjections. so if
Day 1 - 50pts
Day 2 - 45pts
Day 3 - 25 pts
projection to hit 60pts - what would the probabity of him hitting 60 pts
Submitted: 10 months ago.
Category: Programming
Customer: replied 10 months ago.
Day 4 - if projection is 60 points. What's the probability of him scoring 60 points
Expert:  Jason Carlamere replied 10 months ago.

Hello - My name is ***** ***** I will help you. What you are looking for is a simple probability calculation using the calculation

NumberOfFavorableOutcomes/TotalNumberOfPossibleOutcomes

So using your example basically what this means is.. You want to know what the projection to hit over 60 points. So what we would do is we would look at the number of times he scored 60 points or more.. in this case 0... then we look at the total number of possible outcomes which in this case is the sample size.. (number of games played)..

Then we plug the data into the formula..

The result from this formula will be a value between 0 and 1. With 0 being no chance and 1 being a certain chance.

0/2 = 0 --- there is a 0 percent chance that the player hits 60 points.

So let's say on day 4 your player hits 65 points and you want to know his chance of doing it again...

So now we have Day 1 - 50, Day 2 - 45, Day 3 - 25, Day 4 65

Now our number of favorable outcomes is 1

Our total number of possible outcomes is 4 because 4 games have been played which gives us a 25% chance he scores 60 or over..

One more example - It's the middle of the season.. the player played 43 games and scored over 60 3 times..

So we have 3/43 which gives us .0697 then we multiple by 100 and we get 6.97% chance of scoring 60 or over using the scenario...

Understand ?

Hope this helps.

Customer: replied 10 months ago.
How can I put the formula on excel
Expert:  Jason Carlamere replied 10 months ago.

You simply put the formula in a cell beginning with a = sign

so your cell value would be =NumberOfFavorableOutcomes/TotalNumberOfPossibleOutcomes

Where NumberOfFavorableOutcomes is the number of times the points were equal or above your target (in this case 60)

Where TotalNumberOfPossibleOutcomes is the number of games

Expert:  Jason Carlamere replied 10 months ago.

Hello - I hope all is well. Has your issue been solved ? If so if you could take the time to give me a positive rating for the service that I provided you that would be greatly appreciated.

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