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R.R. Jha, Bachelor's Degree
Category: Calculus and Above
Satisfied Customers: 5106
Experience:  Math Expert
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# You answered these questions four months ago. Can you provide

### Resolved Question:

You answered these questions four months ago. Can you provide me with the answers?

Question 1 Determine the error for each of the following forecasts.

Customer Question

Question 1
Determine the error for each of the following forecasts. Compute MAD and MSE.
Period Value Forecast Error
1 202 ------------- -----------
2 191 202
3 173 192
4 169 181
5 171 174
6 175 172
7 182 174
8 196 179
9 204 189
10 219 198
11 227 211

Question 2
The US Census Bureau publishes data on factory orders for all manufacturing, durable goods, and non-durable goods industries. Shown here are factory orders in the US over a 13 year period ( \$ billions ).

a) Use these data to develop forecasts for the years 6 through 13 using a 5-year moving average.

b) Use these data to develop forecasts for the years 6 through 13 using a 5-year weighted moving average. Weight the most recent year by 6, the previous year by 4, the year before that by 2, and the other years by 1.

c) Compute the errors of the forecasts in parts A & B and then the MAD. Which forecast is better?

Year Factory Orders ( \$ billions )
1 2512.7
2 2739.2
3 2874.9
4 2934.1
5 2865.7
6 2978.5
7 3092.4
8 3356.8
9 3607.6
10 3749.3
11 3952.0
12 3949.0
13 4137.0
Question 3
The "Economic Report to the President of the US" included data on the amounts of manufacturers' new and unfilled orders in millions of dollars. Shown here are the figures for new orders over a 21 year period. Use excel to develop a regression model to fit the trend effects for these data. Perform the following.

a) linear model

b) quarratic model

c) how well does either model fit the data?

Year Total Number of Orders
1 55,022
2 55,921
3 64,182
4 76,003
5 87, 327
6 85,139
7 99,513
8 115,109
9 131,629
10 147,604
11 156,359
12 168,025
13 162,140
14 175,451
15 192,879
16 195,706
17 195,204
18 209,389
19 227,025
20 240,758
21 243,643
Submitted: 1 month ago.
Category: Calculus and Above
Expert:  R.R. Jha replied 1 month ago.
Hello,
Welcome to our forum!

I'm RRJha and I'd be glad to help with your questions. I'll start working on them soon and send the answer within a few hours. You'd receive the email as soon as I've posted the answer. You may then check back and retrieve it.

Regards
Customer: replied 1 month ago.

Expert:  R.R. Jha replied 1 month ago.
Working through, shouldn't take long.
Expert:  R.R. Jha replied 1 month ago.

https://app.box.com/s/tv24v3z1dyctg079wkmp

Let me know if you need help with any other problems. Just add 'For RRJha' at the start of your question and I"ll get back to you.

Thanks
R.R. Jha, Bachelor's Degree
Satisfied Customers: 5106
Experience: Math Expert
Customer: replied 1 month ago.

For question 3 I need the regression formula for the linear and the quadratic models.

Expert:  R.R. Jha replied 1 month ago.
I included it too. Please see the highlighted area below each regression analysis for each model. I've included the equations in first line of each highlighted area.

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