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F. Naz, Bachelor's Degree
Satisfied Customers: 5253
Experience:  Have completed B.COM and CA Finalist
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# The following table gives average UK household electricity

### Customer Question

Customer: The following table gives average UK household electricity demand in kilowatt hours (kWh) over some years. Quarter 1 represents Spring, Quarter 2 represents Summer etc.Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2005 4.5 4.1 4.4 5.1 2006 4.9 4.6 4.6 5.3 2007 5.0 4.7 4.8 5.5 2008 5.2 5.0 5.1 5.6 2009 5.3 5.1 5.2 5.7i. State two features about household electricity demand which are apparent from these data.ii. Show that the 4-point centred moving average for Quarter 3 in 2007 is 5.025.iii. Calculate the ratio-to-moving-average (R2MA) for Quarter 3 in 2007.iv. Compute the four seasonal indices using the following table of R2MA values. Replace ‘?’ with your answer to part ‘iii.’.￼￼￼￼￼￼￼￼￼￼￼￼￼￼￼￼￼￼￼￼￼￼￼￼￼Season AutumnSeasonal averages *Winter SpringSummer 0.953368 0.944724 0.959233 0.9600000.961749 0.946015 ? 0.9737471.088000 1.084399 1.081081 1.0641331.026178 1.015228 1.007264 1.002364v. The estimated trend line is found to be:y􏰏 = 4.461 + 0.050xwhere x is the Quarter number (Q1 of 2005 corresponds to x = 1). Provide a forecast, to three decimal places, for average UK household electricity demand for the summer of 2015. Comment briefly on this forecast. Hi I need help to solve this problem
JA: Thanks. Can you give me any more details about your issue?
Customer: Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2005 4.5 4.1 4.4 5.1 2006 4.9 4.6 4.6 5.3 2007 5.0 4.7 4.8 5.5 2008 5.2 5.0 5.1 5.6 2009 5.3 5.1 5.2 5.7 this is the first table
JA: OK got it. Last thing — JustAnswer charges a fee (generally around \$18) to post your type of question to Business and Finance Homework Experts (you only pay if satisfied). There are a couple customers ahead of you. Are you willing to wait a bit?
Customer: Yes, But how long have i to wait? because of I need it for this afternoon and I am willing to pay no problem about it
JA: OK. Now I'm going to take you to a page to place a secure deposit with JustAnswer. Don't worry, this chat is saved. After that, we will finish helping you.
Submitted: 11 months ago.
Expert:  F. Naz replied 11 months ago.

Customer: replied 11 months ago.
My deadline is tonight, at least tomorrow morning
Customer: replied 11 months ago.
thanks
Customer: replied 11 months ago.
If you need, I can upload my calculations that I've just made..
Expert:  F. Naz replied 11 months ago.

You may upload at www.wikisend.com or www.medifire.com and provide me the link, thanks.

Customer: replied 11 months ago.
No, I prefer if you could send by email the answers and then I will check then. OK?
Customer: replied 11 months ago.
Especially, I need help about the point V:The estimated trend line is found to be:
y􏰏 = 4.461 + 0.050x
where x is the Quarter number (Q1 of 2005 corresponds to x = 1). Provide a forecast, to three decimal places, for average UK household electricity demand for the summer of 2015. Comment briefly on this forecast.
Expert:  F. Naz replied 11 months ago.

4.461+.05*1 = 4.511

Customer: replied 11 months ago.
3. The prospective operator of a shoe store has the opportunity to locate in an established shopping centre. Alternatively, at lower cost, the prospective operator can locate in a new centre, whose development has recently been completed. If the new centre turns out to be very successful, it is expected that annual store profits from location in it would be £130,000. If the new centre is only moderately successful, annual profits would be £60,000. If the new centre is unsuccessful, an annual loss of £10,000 would be expected. The profits to be expected from location in the established centre will also depend to some extent on the degree of success of the new centre, as potential customers may be drawn to it. If the new centre was unsuccessful, annual profits for the shoe store located in the established centre would be expected to be £90,000. However, if the new centre was moderately successful, the expected profits would be £70,000, while they would be only £30,000 if the new centre turned out to be very successful. All profits are inclusive of location cost. The probability that the new shopping centre will be very successful is 0.4 and the probability it will be moderately successful is also 0.4.
(a) Draw the decision tree for this problem.
(b) According to the expected monetary value criterion, where should the shoe store be located? Assume a risk-neutral decision-maker.(c) Explain briefly how a perfect forecast of shopping centre success changes the order of the decision tree in (a).
Customer: replied 11 months ago.
Please, if you could: send me a file through email with the asnwer
Customer: replied 11 months ago.
the former answer that you gave me isn't correct: i need to calculate the estimated trendline by providing a forecast using excel
Customer: replied 11 months ago.
I finished my calculations on exercise 5 so I need only the calculations of the exercise 3 that I uploaded before.
I attach you the file with the comment about part V of the exercise 5. Please have a look and tell me your opinion.
Thanks
Expert:  F. Naz replied 11 months ago.

Sorry could not do it as for y=a+bx, therefore should be two variables but here only one variable is given, and you can see that you have given x=1, so how 42 may be replaced with 1 for X, I am opting out so other experts may help you, take care.

Customer: replied 11 months ago.
3. The prospective operator of a shoe store has the opportunity to locate in an established shopping centre. Alternatively, at lower cost, the prospective operator can locate in a new centre, whose development has recently been completed. If the new centre turns out to be very successful, it is expected that annual store profits from location in it would be £130,000. If the new centre is only moderately successful, annual profits would be £60,000. If the new centre is unsuccessful, an annual loss of £10,000 would be expected. The profits to be expected from location in the established centre will also depend to some extent on the degree of success of the new centre, as potential customers may be drawn to it. If the new centre was unsuccessful, annual profits for the shoe store located in the established centre would be expected to be £90,000. However, if the new centre was moderately successful, the expected profits would be £70,000, while they would be only £30,000 if the new centre turned out to be very successful. All profits are inclusive of location cost. The probability that the new shopping centre will be very successful is 0.4 and the probability it will be moderately successful is also 0.4.
(a) Draw the decision tree for this problem.
(b) According to the expected monetary value criterion, where should the shoe store be located? Assume a risk-neutral decision-maker.(c) Explain briefly how a perfect forecast of shopping centre success changes the order of the decision tree in (a).